TV Guide - Scouse and Manc DerbiesSaturday, December 9 2017
Only landed one of four bets from last weekend’s Match Profiles, but it was a satisfying one. Getting a 6/4 return from a Man City home win is like getting four cans of ‘spesh for the price of a bottle of White Lightning.
Let’s have a glug on Super Strength Sunday…
Liverpool v Everton. 2.15 on Sky
There are those who insist on tearing up the formbook when it comes to derbies. Others throw it out the window. Some do both. Then sweep up the pieces and burn them. And bury the charred remains.
I don’t. And here’s why…
- Everton haven’t won a Merseyside derby since 2011. 12 matches ago.
- Liverpool have won six and five have been drawn of the last 11.
- Liverpool have won seven and drawn one of their matches v teams outside the Top Eight (Everton are currently 10th).
- Liverpool have scored 38 goals in their last 12 matches. Three per match.
The formbook told me all that. Never left the house. No black stuff on fingers.
It will also tell you that Everton have won three on the spin, scoring nine and conceding zip. But I’ll add (in crayon over the top) that West Ham, Huddersfield and Ap Limassol are not a realistic barometer to judge this match. It’s a slamdunk, Badmen.
The tricky bit is finding value (‘cos those pesky Bookies’ don’t tear up their formbooks).
We can strike a line through almost all the Home Win options (see below) based on price. But I’ve included a decent punt on Wazza, that will add a bit of enjoyment to watching the match if nothing else.
Home Win at 2/1 Liverpool Win to Nil at 6/4 Liverpool Win & Over 2.5 Goals at 8/13
- Wayne Rooney to have 1+ Shot on Target at 4/5 (Coral #YourCall)
Big Sam will set Everton up not to get beaten and if they do it well, they could get to half-time level. At a slither less than 3/1 it is juuuust about worth a punt (as we’re struggling for anything else).
Expect Everton to be physical, but Liverpool don’t pick up bookings – and tear-ups are a thing of the past. So we can go low on Cards. Corners are tricky, but I’m banking low based on a tight first hour, a lack of qualify possession for Everton and Liverpool not chasing the game.
- Draw/ Liverpool in the HT/ FT at 29/10
- Liverpool Win, Under 10.5 Corners & Under 55.5 Booking Points at 10/3 (Coral #YourCall)
- Liverpool Win, Both Teams to Score: NO, Under 10.5 Corners & Under 55.5 Booking Points at 7/1 (Coral #YourCall)
And now the big one…
Man United v Man City. 4.30pm on Sky.
This is a much trickier nut to crack. Form only tells us so much – United are perfect at home, City perfect away.
United’s mugging of Arsenal last weekend will have them pumped up, but conceding 75% possession and 16 shots on target won’t produce 3-1 wins very often. City’s first loss of the season in midweek shouldn’t ruffle them too much but they have started to concede a few goals (four in four), which could be an indication they are slowing up a tad.
But I think the context of the game is the key here. City’s eight point lead at the top means a draw would do very nicely thank you. United need to win.
This doesn’t mean Jose will go gung-ho. Hell no. But he will release the handbrake on the bus in the last 20 minutes or so, if United haven’t been passed to death by then.
(And by the way, this is the only time in your or my lifetime that you will get 9/4 for a Man United Home Win. I’m a little bit tempted purely based on that fact).
Play this one three times and you could get three different results.
I can't see a lot of goals, but there's no real value in going low. But I’m not going to get drawn into a prediction – other than I don’t expect it to be a classic. It would just be a guess.
Instead I’m going to speculate on value and add a bit of flavour to the spectacle with a couple of long range efforts…
Under 3.5 Goals at 4/11
- First Half Result: Draw at 11/10
- Draw/ Draw in the Half-time/ Full-time at 17/4
- Draw/ Man United at 6/1
Hey. Phew. Rock n roll.
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Matt's short, unremarkable football career was ended by his own bad driving. His long, distinguished career as a football tipster was ended by his own good advice. Because bookmakers don’t like a winner. First, they closed his accounts. Then his members’ accounts. Then his tipping service. And now they employ him as a consultant. Funny old game.