Midweek Coupon Busters - Game Week 17

Tuesday, December 12 2017

 

Got a bit splattered by milk and energy drink at the weekend. A full investigation is underway.

This week we’re flicking the ‘v’s at the posing cockney so and sos of Chelsea and Arsenal. And saying ‘what the holy f…?’ to Christian Benteke and Dejan Lovren. Clumsy pair of bastards.   

Bit unlucky with Watford failing to score – for, ahem, the first time this season. Cost us a 12/1 winner that would’ve made everything all right. 

The good thing is, Premier League matches are like the Chinese Army. There’s always a new battalion on the horizon…

Match Results

  1. Burnley to beat Stoke
  2. Chelsea to beat Huddersfield             £1 Double returns £3.30
  3. Liverpool to beat West Brom
  4. Tottenham to beat Brighton
  5. Man City to beat Swansea
  6. Man United to beat Bournemouth       £1 Acca returns £8       

This looks a gimme, all ways around. I take no credit for pointing it out – and better looking six-folds have fallen over before now. But it is worth a silly quid of anyone’s money.  Burnley are on offer at odds-against so should be included in any variation, such as the Tuesday Twosome highlighted.


Win To Nil

  1. Burnley to beat Stoke
  2. Liverpool to beat West Brom
  3. Chelsea to beat Huddersfield        £2 Trixie returns £15.93 (any two pays £4)

 

  1. Man City to beat Swansea
  2. Man United to beat Bournemouth
  3. Tottenham to beat Brighton           £2 Trixie returns £9.52 (any two pays £3.66)


All six should logically, legally, sensibly win To Nil. But it’s not an exact science, this. So to cover ourselves we’ll place two Trixies.*

*If you’d been paying attention at the weekend, you’d remember that a Trixie is four bets in one – three Doubles and a Treble. Stakes are multiplied by four, so this is a 50p bet x 4 = £2. Are you chewing at the back…?

 

Draws

  1. Palace v Watford
  2. Newcastle v Everton
  3. West Ham v Arsenal          £2 Trixie returns £41.40 (any two pays £11)

I’ll level with you – I fancy all of these. And wouldn’t blame you a miserable bit placing a Double or a Treble

 

Both Teams to Score

  1. Palace v Watford
  2. Southampton v Leicester        £1 Double returns £3
  3. West Ham v Arsenal               £1 Treble returns £5.50

Three more solid looking punts here. 

Fire at will.

Matt Nesbitt

Midweek Preview - Game Week 17

Tuesday, December 12 2017

 

On the twelfth day of Christmas my BadMan gave to me… a full program of Premier League predictions. 

I’ve thrown a Long Shots category into the soup to give us a bit more flexibility.

So you’ll now get Tap-ins which are mainly short-price, for topping up Doubles, Trebles and Accas. Smart Money bets that show you the best value angle of attack. And Long Shots for a punt when we’ve only got scraps to feed on. 

The Scorecasts are for tackling things like Sky’s Super 6 £250k or Colossus’ £5k - £5 million jackpots      

Don’t sign up without snaffling up your £100 in free bets with this code: RAFMTS5UU4

Tuesday:

Burnley v Stoke City
Burnley have slipped into that ‘Everton’ position – no chance of cracking the Top Six, but well capable of seeing off anybody from 8th down. Five wins from seven and will look forward to playing Stoke – and you never used to be able to say that.      
Tap in: Home Win and 5/4 looks good value. 
Smart Money: Burnley & Under 2.5 Goals at 16/5.
Scorecast:  A fifth 1-0 of the campaign.

Crystal Palace v Watford
Ol’ Clumsy Bastard cost Palace a long overdue win – and us a 4/1 winner – from the spot at the weekend. But will find Watford a tough nut to crack. Three good performances have yielded just a single point. They look good for at least another here.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 4/6.
Long Shot: Watford & Both Teams to Score is value at 19/4. 
Scorecast: Another draw that neither wants – 2-2.

Huddersfield v Chelsea
Huddersfield needed Saturday’s win but have picked their battles this season – just 4pts and three goals from six matches v Top Seven - so won’t have scheduled a return form this one. It’s Chelsea that need the win here. 
Tap in: Chelsea win but 2/5 is short.
Smart Money:  Chelsea & Under 3.5 Goals is better at Evens. 
Scorecast: Normal service resumed – 0-2.

Wednesday:
Newcastle United v Everton 
Newcastle’s late OG is the sort of thing that can crush spirits – and take down 3/1 bets, eyes roll. They are teetering on the edge at the moment and Everton will be feeling mischievous after smuggling a point out of Anfield (and pick pocketing a 7/1 winning slip from us). 
Tap in: Everton Draw No Bet at 11/10.
Long Shot: Everton & Both Teams to Score is worth a punt at 11/2.
Scorecast:  A 1-1 won’t be a bad night’s work for both managers. 

Southampton v Leicester City
Southampton get on my bugle, they really do. Were they good, or was it a bit early for Arsenal’s darlings? At least they offer a goal threat with Charlie back in the fold. Leicester are three from three but will have to work harder for anything they get out of this match than at Newcastle. 
Tap in: Both teams to Score at 4/5.
Smart Money: The Draw & Both Teams to Score looks value at 17/5.
Scorecast: All square 1-1.

Swansea v Man City
Seeing off West Brom probably bought Paul Clement a bit of time, regardless of what happens against City. Losing won’t define their season so a spirited showing will do here. Likewise for City. Expect them to do enough but I suspect the team will be picked with Tottenham on Saturday in mind. 
Smart Money: Man City & Under 3.5 Goals allows 0-3 or another 1-2. 6/5 is fair.
Scorecast: An arms-length-hand-on-head 0-2.

Liverpool v West Brom
West Brom could suffer a backlash here for Liverpool’s custard pie-ing at the weekend. Klopp will be fuming. Lovren, watching.  West Brom’s 0-0 v Palace and listless 1-0 defeat at Swansea will have no doubt delighted the board as they counted out Tony Pulis’ severance pay. 
Tap in: Liverpool to Nil at 10/11.
Long Shot: Correct Score 3-0 at 6/1.  
Scorecast: Err, 3-0.

Man United v Bournemouth
United will be glad to get back on the pitch – and even more pleased that Man City aren't on it. They are as efficient at home to teams below them (seven wins, one goal conceded) as Bournemouth are cannon fodder to Top Half teams (one point from eight games). Liverpool, Chelsea (in the cup) and City up next. Ouch.
Tap in: Man United Win to Nil at Evens.
Long Shot: Correct Score 3-0.
Scorecast: Back in the saddle 3-0.

Tottenham v Brighton
Losing at Huddersfield would’ve sent Brighton reeling a bit. It’s just one point (and one goal) from four matches now and no goals away to Top Half teams. Spurs’ looked back to their old selves against Stoke and more of the same would be a good tune up for City at the weekend. 
Tap in: Tottenham Win to Nil at 10/11.
Long Shot: Three in three Son to be First Scorer is value at 4/1
Scorecast: Threesy does it 3-0

West Ham v Arsenal
After matching Man City for 85 minutes and beating Chelsea, the Hammers will be looking to put a dent or two in the Gunners. Arsenal’s away record is only marginally better than Bournemouth and Brighton, neither of whom would be anywhere near 4/6 favourites to win this.
Tap in: Double Chance West Ham/ Draw has to be taken at 5/4.
Smart Money: West Ham & Both Teams to Score is value at 8/1. 
Scorecast: A fancy Arsenal will summon enough for a point 1-1.

I’ve got tray full of delicious homemade Coupon Busters in the oven. Ready to serve shortly…
   
Matt Nesbitt

TV Guide - Scouse and Manc Derbies

Saturday, December 9 2017

 

Only landed one of four bets from last weekend’s Match Profiles, but it was a satisfying one. Getting a 6/4 return from a Man City home win is like getting four cans of ‘spesh for the price of a bottle of White Lightning.

Let’s have a glug on Super Strength Sunday…

Liverpool v Everton. 2.15 on Sky

There are those who insist on tearing up the formbook when it comes to derbies. Others throw it out the window. Some do both. Then sweep up the pieces and burn them. And bury the charred remains.
I don’t. And here’s why…

  • Everton haven’t won a Merseyside derby since 2011. 12 matches ago. 
  • Liverpool have won six and five have been drawn of the last 11.
  • Liverpool have won seven and drawn one of their matches v teams outside the Top Eight (Everton are currently 10th).
  • Liverpool have scored 38 goals in their last 12 matches. Three per match. 

The formbook told me all that. Never left the house. No black stuff on fingers. 

It will also tell you that Everton have won three on the spin, scoring nine and conceding zip. But I’ll add (in crayon over the top) that West Ham, Huddersfield and Ap Limassol are not a realistic barometer to judge this match. It’s a slamdunk, Badmen.   

The tricky bit is finding value (‘cos those pesky Bookies’ don’t tear up their formbooks). 

We can strike a line through almost all the Home Win options (see below) based on price. But I’ve included a decent punt on Wazza, that will add a bit of enjoyment to watching the match if nothing else.

Tap Ins

  • Home Win at 2/1
  • Liverpool Win to Nil at 6/4
  • Liverpool Win & Over 2.5 Goals at 8/13 
  • Wayne Rooney to have 1+ Shot on Target at 4/5 (Coral #YourCall) 

Big Sam will set Everton up not to get beaten and if they do it well, they could get to half-time level. At a slither less than 3/1 it is juuuust about worth a punt (as we’re struggling for anything else).

Expect Everton to be physical, but Liverpool don’t pick up bookings – and tear-ups are a thing of the past. So we can go low on Cards. Corners are tricky, but I’m banking low based on a tight first hour, a lack of qualify possession for Everton and Liverpool not chasing the game.  

Long Shots

  • Draw/ Liverpool in the HT/ FT at 29/10
  • Liverpool Win, Under 10.5 Corners & Under 55.5 Booking Points at 10/3 (Coral #YourCall)
  • Liverpool Win, Both Teams to Score: NO, Under 10.5 Corners & Under 55.5 Booking Points at 7/1 (Coral #YourCall)

And now the big one…

Man United v Man City. 4.30pm on Sky.

This is a much trickier nut to crack. Form only tells us so much – United are perfect at home, City perfect away. 

United’s mugging of Arsenal last weekend will have them pumped up, but conceding 75% possession and 16 shots on target won’t produce 3-1 wins very often. City’s first loss of the season in midweek shouldn’t ruffle them too much but they have started to concede a few goals (four in four), which could be an indication they are slowing up a tad.

But I think the context of the game is the key here. City’s eight point lead at the top means a draw would do very nicely thank you. United need to win. 

This doesn’t mean Jose will go gung-ho. Hell no. But he will release the handbrake on the bus in the last 20 minutes or so, if United haven’t been passed to death by then.

(And by the way, this is the only time in your or my lifetime that you will get 9/4 for a Man United Home Win. I’m a little bit tempted purely based on that fact). 

Play this one three times and you could get three different results.

I can't see a lot of goals, but there's no real value in going low. But I’m not going to get drawn into a prediction – other than I don’t expect it to be a classic. It would just be a guess.

Instead I’m going to speculate on value and add a bit of flavour to the spectacle with a couple of long range efforts…   

Tap Ins

  • Under 3.5 Goals at 4/11
  • First Half Result: Draw at 11/10

Long Shots

  • Draw/ Draw in the Half-time/ Full-time at 17/4
  • Draw/ Man United at 6/1

Hey. Phew. Rock n roll.

Matt Nesbitt

Coupon Busters - Game Week 16

Friday, December 8 2017

 

A tidy three from six in last week’s Coupon Busters, tucking a sweaty 6pts profit in our top pockets. 

But before you spend it all on Spice, let’s see if we can reinvest a bit of it pulling the bookies’ pants down again this weekend. 

Eyes down…

Match Results

  1. Liverpool to beat Everton
  2. Arsenal to beat Southampton
  3. Tottenham to beat Stoke
  4. Chelsea to beat West Ham             £1 Fourfold returns £4.75

 

  1. Brighton to beat Huddersfield
  2. West Brom to beat Swansea
  3. Palace to beat Bournemouth         £2 Trixie returns £19.50 (any two returns £3)

                    
I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to place the Fourfold as two Doubles. All have got a slightly streaky element about them, whether it’s the local derby factor or the moodiness of the North London pair at the mo. But all should win. 

I’ve also dropped a little Trixie into the mixie. Which for the uncircumcised is actually four bets in one – three Doubles and a Treble. Your stake is multiplied by four, so this is a 50p bet x 4 = £2 total stake.

They are three big value wins that could all land with a stiff tailwind. But it’s a punt. So rather taking on the Treble, or picking out a Double I thought we’d make our underpants fireproof with a Trixie. Any two gives us a return. 

Draws

  1. Burnley v Watford 
  2. Newcastle v Leicester 
  3. Man United v Man City             £2 Trixie returns £32.96 (any two returns £5)
  4. Huddersfield v Brighton           £1.10 Yankee returns £25.68 (any three returns £4.67)

And for these fab four draws I’ve turned it up to 11. A Yankee is 11 bets in one – six Doubles, four Trebles and a Fourfold. A 10p bet x 11 = £1.10 total stake. Any two gets out money back, three and we’re laughing. All four and we’re exposing our breasts.  

Both Teams to Score

  1. Tottenham v Stoke
  2. Newcastle v Leicester                    £1 returns £3.52
  3. Burnley v Watford                          £1 returns £6.90
  4. Palace v Bournemouth                  £1 returns £13.13

         
Here I really like the Double. Compelling stats bullied me into the Treble. And my guts made me add the Fourfold. I’ve kept the £1 marker, but wouldn’t call you any rude names if you scaled your stakes down relative to the odds. 

Oh, and don’t forget Super Dooper Sunday. In the red corners, Liverpool and Man United. In the blue corners, Everton and Man City.

My Match Profiles will help turn it all to green. 

On site noonish on Saturday. 

Matt Nesbitt

Premier League Preview - Game Week 16

Thursday, December 7 2017

 

I'll be performing a full cavity search on the Scouse and Manc derbies in this week's Match Profiles - look out for the post on Saturday morning. But here's a quick frisk of the rest of the weekend coupon... 

Tap-ins are, well, exactly that. Short prices so keep them for topping up your Doubles, Trebles and Accas. 

The Smart Money bets guide you to pickpocketing a bit of value from the Bookies.

And the Scorecasts are for tackling things like Sky's Super 6 £250k or Colossus’ £5k - £5 million jackpots.

Colossus will give you £10 in free bets if you sign up with this code: RAFMTS5UU4

Saturday:
West Ham v Chelsea
Getting to within seven minutes of an unlikely point at Man City will have the Hammers pumped up, but I suspect they will feel the pressure at home. Especially when the visitors have only dropped four points on the road all season.
Tap in: Chelsea Win but too short at 1/2.
Smart Money: Chelsea Win & Under 3.5 Goals is much more like it at 14/5.
Scorecast:  0-1 will do for the Blues.

Burnley v Watford
By now Burnley will expect points from a match like this, but have played all the Bottom Six now and need to start scoring more than one at a time. Watford probably deserved more than one point from their last two v Spurs and Man United. And do their best work on the road.  
Tap in: Under 2.5 Goals at 6/10, but…
Smart Money: ...Both Teams to Score is better at Evens. 
Scorecast: Not much between these two - 1-1.

Crystal Palace v Bournemouth
Only one defeat in six is progress for Palace, but just seven points won suggests it’s slow. Another two goals here – like in their previous four home matches, should take the points. Bournemouth have Man United, City and Liverpool after this so must leave with something.
Tap in: First Half Under 1.5 Goals at 1/3 – but just for Multiples.
Smart Money:  Draw/ Palace is the best value home win option at 15/4.
Scorecast: Fancy Palace to nick it 2-1.

Huddersfield v Brighton
The top flite looks to have caught up with both of these in the last month or so. Huddersfield look on the verge of a tailspin to me and don’t look capable of more than a goal a game at home. Brighton are tidy v teams below them, taking 14 points from a possible 21 so far.
Tap in: Brighton Draw No Bet at Evens.
Smart Money: Brighton & Under 3.5 Goals is value at 12/5.
Scorecast:  Brighton in slightly better fettle. 0-1 

Swansea v West Brom
Not sure which is worse – six defeats in seven, one goal in five, or three home blanks in a row. Either way, Swansea are in the shit. Three decent West Brom showings has yielded just three points. One half decent one here will take three.  
Tap in: Under 2.5 Goals is short at 4/9 but looks nailed on.
Smart Money: 12/5 for West Brom & Under 3.5 Goals appeals.
Scorecast: It won’t be pretty. 0-1.

Tottenham v Stoke City
Spurs can put the Champions League hoopla away until February and get back on track here. They are efficient against Bottom Half teams (W8 D2) but the absence of Davinson Sanchez will encourage Stoke. The Potters have only failed to score once on the road this season. Might need a couple here though.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 10/11
Smart Money: Tottenham Win & Both teams to Score is easily the best home win option at 9/5.
Scorecast: Fragile Spurs to come out firing. 3-1.

Newcastle United v Leicester City
Just one point from five matches has Newcastle teetering on the brink of their next crisis. Firing three blanks in their five home matches against teams above them is part of their problem.  Keeping out a rejuvenated Vardy and Mahrez will be another. Leicester are unbeaten in five on the road.  
Tap in: Leicester Draw No Bet at Evens.
Smart Money: The Draw & Both Teams to Score at 13/4.  
Scorecast: A desmond - 2-2.

Sunday:
Southampton v Arsenal
Arsenal’s away form barely puts them into the Top Half of the table. But Southampton seem to have decided on they can and can’t beat, which doesn’t include Top Eight teams – just one goal to show from five matches so far, so fancy Arsenal to pass them to death.
Tap in: Arsenal First Team to Score 7/10.
Smart Money: Arsenal & Under 3.5 Goals is tidy at 21/5.
Scorecast: Steady as she goes 0-2.

Liverpool v Everton 
I hope Big Sam has enjoyed the ego massage of home wins against West Ham and Huddersfield, because it’s almost over. And there will be no happy ending at Anfield. Unless he’s one of those types that like a good hiding. In a German accent.  Now, where was I? Oh yeah, Liverpool win.
Tap in: Home  Win – but not at 2/7, thank you very much.
Smart Money: Liverpool Win to Nil is short at 6/5.  So let’s have a punt on Liverpool Win, Both Teams to Score: NO, Over 10.5 Corners & Under 55.5 Booing Points at 15/2 (via Coral’s #YourCall) 
Scorecast: Liverpool like a 3-0. 

Man United v Man City
Ooh, now then. A title decider in December! Well, only if City win it. Don’t suppose City’s first defeat of the campaign midweek will bother them, but they have been conceding a few goals lately (five in four games). United will need at least one to get anything. And another worldie or two from David De Gea, I suspect.
Tap in: Over 10.5 cliches during Sky’s coverage.
Smart Money: The Draw & Under 2.5 Goals is value at 7/2.
Scorecast: A third 0-0 in five meetings.

My Coupon Busters should be along about noon on Friday. 

Yeah?

Matt Nesbitt

Things we learned at the weekend

Tuesday, December 5 2017

 

Value is value…

Over the years, many people have asked me what is the secret to successful betting. Normally, because I’m bloody hilarious, I will answer, ‘picking winners’. Then I’ll get serious and say, ‘but seriously…’ and say this…

Betting at odds bigger than the actual chance of something is the only way you will make money. As an answer it’s not as satisfying as something definitive like: ‘Trap one, first race at the dogs. Guaranteed…’ or ‘double your stake after every loser…’ or ‘French horses can’t win the National…’ – all of which I’ve heard.  Usually with absolute conviction. And always by idiots. Because it’s all bollocks. 

Trap one greyhounds don’t always win race one. Chasing losses by doubling stakes is likely to render homeless. And Mon Mome, 2009.    

So, unless you can back a winner every time (and you can’t. Trust me, I’ve spent 20 years proving it). Your best – actually, only – route is to back value. That is, a price bigger than the chances of something actually happening.

Take Man City v West Ham. On Sunday night the waistbands of spangling under-panted pole dancers all over Gibraltar will have been stretched to busting with the proceeds of losing Man City Win to Nil and Man City Match Handicap and HT/ FT bets. All at criminally short prices.  

Go steady, when you go short Badmen. Hope you were on the recommended City & Both Teams to Score at 6/4.  That’s how we do things round these parts.

Big Sam isn’t the Messiah…

Two wins and two clean sheets is just what Everton needed. In truth, a new manager with a big personality was probably pretty high on the list. But I’d suggest that home matches against West Ham and Huddersfield were pretty handily timed too.

West Ham will feel better after taking City the distance, but are in a bit of a state – and I’m hearing solid whispers about Sakho and Lanzini-sized holes that will need filling in January. And Huddersfield have now managed 630 minutes without a goal on their travels. 

So I’m expecting a few more miles of bad road before Big Sam restores them to the dour mid-table status that will have fans calling for his head this time next year.

A new brush doesn’t always sweep clean…

In Thursday’s Weekend Preview I put: 
Two teams with better days ahead, but this is still a six-pointer. Palace are edging steadily towards an away goal but the Baggies will be on best behaviour for Pardew’s first match. A month ago it was a banker 0-0, now I’m not sure. 

And predicted a home win, with both teams scoring. So what happens? 0-0, of course.

Frankly, West Brom don’t deserve a boost to their season. Is anybody excited by the appointment of Alan Pardew, apart from Alan? 

All the talk of wanting more expansive football… having their best squad for 25 years (what even better than the Paul Scharner and Graham Dorrans days…?! Phew, that’s big talk, Baggies!)… taking the club forward, blah blah blah boing boing. Then they appoint a manager whose career has been defined by doing a shit dance when his team looked like they might win a match. But didn’t. 

And he had the brass balls to call Manuel Pellegrini a cunt. Some people…

Fergie time is well and truly up…

Man United’s counter punching victory at Arsenal while spending most of the match on the ropes was their most Mourinho performance yet. And that’s good news – hear me out… It might not always be great to watch, but it’s great to bet on. 

Last minute goals are our enemy. For every one you collect on, there are a dozen torn up betting slips. 

Coming up this week:

Thursday: Weekend matches previewed
Friday: Your weekend Coupon Busters
Saturday: Your TV guide to cashing in on Super Dooper Sunday. 

Matt Nesbitt

TV Guide - Chelsea v Newcastle, Man City v West Ham

Saturday, December 2 2017

 

I had planned to cover Arsenal v Man United, but then changed my mind. Just like that. I’m mad, me.

Instead we’ve got a bit of this…

Chelsea v Newcastle. 12.30pm on Sky Sports.

Now, I will always be led by numbers – but context is key. For instance, these two are pegged level in their last 13 matches. Five wins apiece and three draws. And I’ve seen betting slips tear themselves up after good, really good Chelsea teams have been turned over by bang average Newcastle teams. But…

Chelsea will win this match. They’ve been pretty efficient at home – opening day and Man City defeats can be overlooked. And they been very efficient against Bottom Half teams, home and away – five wins to nil and one defeat to Palace. Fly. Ointment. But I can overlook that too.

With Man City almost out of sight, a bun fight is developing for the bridesmaid spots. With Arsenal and Man United squabbling over three points this weekend – and probably ending up with just one apiece – and Tottenham having an identity crisis. This could be a good weekend for Chelsea and they won’t let this match slide by without maximum points. 

Newcastle will know that their next two matches – at home to Leicester and Everton – are where the points are, not here. Plus, Chelsea have got Champions League business on Tuesday, so don’t expect many 50/50 tackles in the last 20 minutes. 

I’m expecting this match to be won by 75 minutes and attention to drift elsewhere. Less goals, less corners, less cards. And this is how I propose cashing in…

Tap Ins

  • Home Win but no, no, NO at 1/4. 
  • Chelsea Win & Under 3.5 Goals. This gives us up to 3-0 and even a squeaky 2-1. At 11/10 it’s not just a bigger price, but better value than the Win to Nil (19/20). 

Long Shots

  • Coral are paying 8/1 for Chelsea Win, Both Teams to Score: NO, Under 10.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points in their #YourCall section.

 

We’ve got the same sort of deal with Man City at home to West Ham…

Man City v West Ham. 4pm on Sky.

Now then... I watch Karen Brady every week on The Apprentice, scowling at the poor clowns making bad decisions and cocking things up. She doesn't suffer fools, this lady. 

And I'll level with you - the bitch-slapping she hands out during the final interview process has made my balls disappear up inside my body, more than once. Brutal, I tells ya.

And then she sits on the panel that hires David Moyes? I’m getting mixed messages, Karen. So, with regret – you’re fired.

Anyway, to business…

Like the previous, we will take it as a given that City will win. They will. So the question is how. 

The complacency of an eight point lead, an upcoming Champions League assignment and their ability to pull 90-somethingth minute rabbits out of any orifice you care to name is our enemy here. 

Home wins are evenly split between 'To Nil's and otherwise. With just one clean sheet from seven matches v Botton Half teams, compared to six from seven matches v the Top Half.

Plus, we’ve got to factor in the fact that West Ham will play with complete freedom against the division’s Harlem Globetrotters. They are allowed to lose this one.

There might even be one or two (or 15) players that thinking ‘shop window’. All of which means it won't necessarily be the arse-raping that one might expect. 

So, after tapping all that info into the machine and punching the big green button – this is how I’m playing…   

Tap Ins

  • City Win to Nil is 4/5…
  • City (-1) Match Handicap is 2/7…
  • City (-2) Match Handicap is 3/4…
  • Half-time/ Full-time City/ City is 4/9… and they might well all win. But I’m swerving the lot.

Long Shots

  • City Win & Both Teams to Score pays.6/4. Yes, that's odds-against Badmen. 
  • Coral are paying 6/1 on Man City to Win, Both Teams to Score: YES, Under 10.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points in their #YourCall section

Play nice. And I'll be back up in your grill on Tuesday with some musings from the weekend.

Matt Nesbitt

 

 

Coupon Busters - Game Week 15

Friday, December 1 2017

 

Oriol Romeu… Josh King… Jonny Evans’ arse… Three reasons we weren’t celebrating a clean sweep of Coupon Busters in the week. But I know where they all live. And I’ve got Liam Neeson’s number.

So we’ll go again, shall we…

Match Results

  1. Chelsea to beat Newcastle
  2. Man City to beat West Ham
  3. Liverpool to beat Brighton                                  £1 Treble returns £2.10
  4. Everton to beat Huddersfield        
  5. Stoke to beat Swansea                                      £1 Five-fold returns £7.00

Another nailed-on Treble, but you don’t need me to tell you that (although double your money is not to be flicked the Vs at). Adding the on-the-up Everton might tempt you in, but for a wild card I’d go straight to the five-way at 6/1


Win To Nil

  1. Chelsea to beat Newcastle
  2. Man City to beat West Ham                                   £1 Double returns £3.60
  3. Stoke to beat Swansea                                          £1 Treble returns £11.00

City let us down in midweek, but doubling them with Chelsea has to be backed. There are others to consider – you can make a case for Everton, Liverpool, even West Brom – but based on value, Stoke get the nod.


Both Teams to Score

  1. Watford v Tottenham
  2. Arsenal v Man United                                       £1 Double returns £3.00
  3. Brighton v Liverpool
  4. West Brom v Crystal Palace                            £1 Double returns £12.00

        
The only one I would bet my kidneys on is Watford v Spurs. But Jose can’t go to Arsenal looking for a 0-0 – and Arsenal are well capable of spoiling those plans anyway, forcing United to start the bus. Brighton have got a goal – and Liverpool a slip – in them and I’ve got a fancy for West Brom and Palace to throw off the shackles. At 11/1 I’ll have a nibble on that.

That’s where my paper round money is going this weekend. 

But I’ve also got my eye on a few pearlers in the Arsenal v Man United and Man City v West Ham matches. So once I’ve emptied a few charity boxes, I’ll be back with a couple of Match Profiles.
    
At ease.

Matt Nesbitt

Who the hell is Matt Nesbitt?

Punter. Tipster. Collector. Of winnings.

Meet the good boy behind Badman Betting...

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

The planned football career that would allow Matt to spend every afternoon in the bookies was cut mercifully short. So he was able to spend his mornings there too.

But rather than spunk his (sweet) FA pension on a day-tripper to Palookaville, Matt played smart. He watched, he listened. Learned his trade and earned a reputation.

But the bookies don’t like a winner...

First they closed his accounts. Then they tried legal action to shut down his tipping services. Now they employ him.

Matt has been providing winning football advice since 1998. And whether it has been via post, premium rate phone line, email, TV or Twitter – he has always made punters money.

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