Premier League Preview - Game Week 15

Thursday, November 30 2017


More David Moyes than Pep Guardiola this week. 

Just four Tap Ins and two Smart Money bets to cheer (or swear repeatedly to yourself about). 

But you can’t keep a good man down. Or a BadMan. 

The Tap Ins are mostly short-price best employed topping up Doubles, Trebles and Accas. Smart Money bets aim to pick the bookies pockets, placing the bets they’d rather you didn’t. 
The Scorecasts are for tackling things like Sky’s Super 6 £250k or Colossus’ £5k - £5 million jackpots   

(Your first £100 with Colossus is on me if you sign up with this code: RAFMTS5UU4).

Have a bang on this…

Saturday:

Chelsea v Newcastle
Honours are even between these two in the last 13 meetings, believe it or not (both W5 D3). But Newcastle’s two points from a possible 27 v teams outside the Bottom Five so far is more helpful. As you were. 
Tap in: Chelsea Win – but swerve the 1/4.
Smart Money: Chelsea Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 21/20.
Scorecast: No slip ups. 2-0.

Brighton v Liverpool
A case of a resistible force v a moveable object. Brighton don’t score against Top Half teams, Liverpool have only managed one clean sheet away. Chock full of goals though. Only failed to score 3+ once in their last seven (all comps).
Tap in: Liverpool Win but 1/2 is too short.
Smart Money: Liverpool/ Liverpool HT/FT is a much better 27/20.
Scorecast:. No one has put three past Brighton yet. 0-2.

Everton v Huddersfield
Big Sam (and Lil Wayne) might have already rescued Everton’s mid-table ambitions. To be fair, at home to West Ham was a good place to stop the rot. At home to Huddersfield is a good place to mount a recovery. No goals in five of their six away games.
Tap in: Everton Win but 4/6?? Pff!
Smart Money:  Not sure I trust Everton To Nil. So Under 3.5 Goals it is at 13/10.
Scorecast: A more competitive than you think 2-1.

Leicester v Burnley
Only Man City and Chelsea are currently better on the road than Burnley – but try getting 15/4 on those two away at Leicester! The Foxes play to their level – they win at home and draw away to teams outside the Top Six and lose the rest. Burnley are border line, but can’t see them beaten here.
Tap in: Burnley Draw No Bet at 9/4.
Smart Money: Burnley Win & Under 3.5 Goals is a big value 9/4. 
Scorecast:  A draw wouldn't offend anyone.1-1. 

Stoke v Swansea
This is a must win for Stoke. And Swansea. But neither can be trusted. All of Stoke’s home games have gone Over 2.5 Goals so far, six of Swansea’s seven have stayed Under.  Hmm. 
Tap in: No gimmes here. 
Smart Money: But Stoke Win & Over 2.5 Goals is good value at 23/10.
Scorecast: 3-1 will do it.

Watford v Tottenham 
Watford do their best work on the road but have hit at least two in eight of their last nine outings. Tottenham have kept just one clean sheet in their last ten (all comps). Not a lot of value in a Spurs win after three away defeats on the spin. 
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 4/6. 
Smart Money: Tottenham Win & Both teams to Score is just about worth it at 11/5.  
Scorecast: Tight, but Tottenham need this. 2-3.

West Brom v Crystal Palace
Two teams with better days ahead, but this is still a six-pointer. Palace are edging steadily towards an away goal but the Baggies will be on best behaviour for Pardew’s first match. A month ago it was a banker 0-0, now I’m not sure. So…
Tap in: Taking a watching brief.  
Smart Money: The Draw/ West Brom HT/FT is value at 17/4.  
Scorecast: A tight squeak but 2-1.

Arsenal v Man United
Arsenal are 100% at home but have only played one Top Seven team. United have lost three of their last foru away, but have the muscle if not the form to get something. An Arsenal win will all but hand the title to City. A United win will put it off a week.    
Tap in: Arsenal Draw No Bet at 8/11.
Smart Money: Draw & Both Teams to Score at 13/4.
Scorecast: Just what Pep wants - 1-1.

Sunday:
Bournemouth v Southampton
This could easily be a Championship match and I, for one, wouldn’t give two monkeys. Don’t really see the point of either team. The sooner that Eddie Howe moves on, takes Callum Wilson with him, and Liverpool buy Southampton wholesale, the better. There, I said it.
Tap in: I'm not playing. 
Smart Money: Still not. 
Scorecast: I dunno. Probably a draw or something. 1-1?

Man City v West Ham
It’s probably a bit unfair to judge David Moyes after just three matches. But the next three are this one, Chelsea and Arsenal so it might actually be favourable. So here goes. Ahem. Shite. The only thing that can slow up City now is the sort of mucking about that let West Brom and Stoke score twice.
Tap in: Nothing worth our while.  
Smart Money: Man City Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 8/5.
Scorecast: Both would take a 3-0 right now.

There'll be coupon busting selection of Coupon Busters right here first thing Friday monring. Followed by Match Profiles of Arsenal v Man United and Man City v West Ham on Saturday. 

Go now. But come back then. Yeah?

Matt Nesbitt

Midweek Coupon Busters - Game Week 14

Wednesday, November 29 2017


Our chips had a good dousing of urine over the weekend, mainly due to Tottenham turning up five minutes late for the West Brom match. And Jordan Pickford turning up at Southampton without his hands. 

So we owe the bookies a good hiding. You hold him, I’ll hit him with these midweek multiples…

Match Results

  1. Arsenal to beat Huddersfield
  2. Chelsea to beat Swansea
  3. Man City to beat Southampton                       £1 Treble returns £1.75
  4. West Brom to beat Newcastle                        £1 Four-fold returns £4.25

The Treble looks nailed on – I take no credit for it, but it is what it is. But to make it pay I prefer adding an odds-against West Brom into the mix rather than Tottenham or Man United. Both odds-on and both away to tricky customers. 


Win To Nil

  1. Man City to beat Southampton
  2. Chelsea to beat Swansea                              £1 Double returns £3.60
  3. West Brom to beat Newcastle                        £1 Treble returns £12.82

I’d be quite happy to settle for a City and Chelsea double, especially as the Baggies could have relieved themselves all over the Treble before they even take to the field. But if West Brom win, it is just as likely to be To Nil. So 12/1 (ish) is value.     


Under 2.5 Goals

  1. West Brom v Newcastle    
  2. Bournemouth v Burnley                                £1 Double returns £2.80

        
Gary Megson will trust WBA’s defenders more than their forwards to secure the points – and I’m not sure Newcastle have got a goal in them anyway. Burnley love a low scorer and have suffocated better teams this season.
    
I’ll be at it again on Thursday, with a preview of the weekend fixtures followed by more Coupon Busters on Friday. Then I’ll be gloving up and getting stuck into Saturday’s TV double bill of Chelsea v Newcastle and Arsenal v Man United.

Yeah?

Matt Nesbitt

Midweek Preview - Game Week 14

Tuesday, November 28 2017

 

There’s a full midweek program for us to get our grubby mitts on. 

The weekend saw 7/10 Tap-ins and 5/10 Smart Money bets landed – delivering 8.82pts profit if you’re counting. 

We had 6/10 correct match results – enough to win you £5,000 or so with Colossus over tonight and tomorrow (your first £100 is on me with this code: RAFMTS5UU4).

And just the one Scorecast. Which is no good to anyone. 

Must do better...

Tuesday:
Brighton v Crystal Palace
Brighton have picked up 14pts from a possible 18 against Bottom Seven teams. Palace haven’t scored on the road yet, so it looks a nailed on home win. But I think Palace are on the up.
Tap in: Wilfried Zaha to have 1+ shot on target 4/5 with Coral.
Smart Money: Both Teams to Score at 21/20.
Scorecast: Fancy Palace just might sneak a 1-1

Leicester City v Tottenham
Leicester haven’t taken a single point from five matches against Top Six teams. Tottenham look happier away from trembly Wembley. 100% v Teams outside the Top Four, none conceded.
Tap in: Away Win at 8/11.
Smart Money: Tottenham Win to Nil at 21/10.
Scorecast: Spurs back in the saddle. 0-2.

Watford v Man United
Most of Watford’s best work has been done on the road, but they will remember out-muscling United here last season. Just 5pts from the last five away matches for Mourinho.  
Tap in: Result after 30 minutes – Draw at 4/6.
Smart Money:  Man United Win, Over 10.5 Corners & Over 35.5 Booking Points at 6/1 with Coral
Scorecast: United cannot afford not to win this. 0-1

West Brom v Newcastle United
Albion are on the up. To be fair they haven’t been far short all season and no doubt boosted by rattling Spurs. Newcastle are in a tail spin. Can’t see where the next clean sheet is coming from. 
Tap in: Under 2.5 Goals at 4/7.
Smart Money: West Brom Win & Under 2.5 Goals at 16/5.
Scorecast:  Corner turned. 2-0. 

Wednesday:

Arsenal v Huddersfield
Arsenal tend to do just enough at home, but are quietly building a head of steam. Huddersfield are 540 minutes without a goal on the road and Sunday will have taken a bit out of them. 
Tap in: Home Win but don’t you dare at 1/5. 
Smart Money: Draw/ Arsenal HT/ FT is the value pick at 14/5.
Scorecast: Another 2-0.

Bournemouth v Burnley
Two form teams. Bournemouth are four wins from six and haven’t conceded in three. Burnley have been better than Man United, Liverpool and Arsenal away from home so far.
Tap in: Under 2.5 Goals at 8/13.
Smart Money: Draw & Both to Score is value at 18/5. 
Scorecast: Not a lot between these. 1-1.

Chelsea v Swansea
Chelsea are starting to motor. They begin a run of eight very winnable looking matches tonight. Can’t say the same for Swansea.  
Tap in: Home Win but don’t bother at 2/11.
Smart Money: Chelsea Win & Under 3.5 Goals at Evens is more like it.
Scorecast: Chelsea’s sloppiness tells me 2-1.

Everton v West Ham
The threat of Big Sam and the visit from Dull David won’t help anybody’s mood at Goodison.  West Ham have got Man City, Chelsea and Arsenal up next so need something here. Not out of the question. 
Tap in: West Ham Draw No Bet at 6/5.
Smart Money: West Ham Win to Nil is value at 17/4. 
Scorecast: Oh go on then 1-2.

Man City v Southampton 
Fancy City to win this one. No, really. Southampton have only scored once in six matches past teams outside the Bottom Seven so far. 
Tap in: Home Win but not at 2/11.  
Smart Money: City Win & Under 3.5 Goals is much better at 13/10.
Scorecast: City haven’t won 3-0 yet this season.

Stoke v Liverpool
Stoke tend to fair better against better teams – four of their six defeats have been by Bottom Eight teams. Liverpool guarantee goals. At both ends. 
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 4/6.
Smart Money: If you fancy a big price swerve ball, the Stoke Win , Both Teams to Score, Under 10.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points  pays 16/1 with Coral.
Scorecast: Stoke away on a Wednesday night? 1-1.
 

A serving of Coupon Busters will be along later. Oh yeah. 

Matt Nesbitt

What we learned from Game Week 13

Monday, November 27 2017


Everton are bang in trouble…

Many fans are calling for David Unsworth to carry on as caretaker at Goodison. Not caretaker manager, just caretaker. The toilet rolls are getting a bit low and the car park could do with a sweep.

The man himself said ‘Things have to change’ after the match. Careful what you wish for, David.  

I fell flat on my arse banking on Everton’s away trip to go Under 3.5 Goals, costing us a winning five-fold that would’ve taken the Coupon Busters into profit. After getting hit for five by that Italian pub team on Thursday, I figured damage limitation might be in the thinking. First choice Pickford was back in goal, but now they have two keepers with a dose of net rash. 

It’s not over until it’s over…

And even then it’s not over. After three winners and a fat 7.67pts profit from the Chelsea v Liverpool match, I was loving the look of Huddersfield v City on 80 minutes. We needed a City goal and another corner to land our 4/1 #YourCall bet with Coral. 

City scored the late winner – standard. But the absent corner didn’t matter in the end because Ref Craig Pawson (very poor, son) suddenly got busy with the cards. And didn’t stop at the final whistle, with Huddersfield’s van La Parra copping for a Red one as he got in his car. 

The players tried to cover their mouths as they left the pitch, but Leroy Sane was seen to say ‘That’s fucked my BadMan bets’. 

Although it could actually be over on December 10th…

Being the best league in the world (copyright Sky, BT, BBC, etc.) it couldn’t possibly be done and dusted by Christmas, could it. Could it? 

Hmm, whisper it but it could be as soon December 10th. Unless United can but the brakes on City at Old Trafford, their increasingly noisy neighbours will leave it the Theatre of Pipe Dreams for at least another season.

Already it looks from here as the only thing that can undo City is City. By being a bit, well, City. Neither United, Chelsea or Tottenham look capable of reeling them in. And Arsenal can’t even be trusted to be the least reliable team in the Premier League these days, with Liverpool’s bipolar back four.      

United head the Without City betting at 13/10, with Chelsea next at 5/2. Tottenham look the value at 6/1. If they can sort out their defence…

Tottenham are not the finished article…

Tottenham’s emergence as a top team over the last couple of seasons has been largely built on a defence as solid as Kate and Gerry’s.

But they have managed just one clean sheet in their last nine (a less than spectacular W4 D2 L3). Compared to six from the eight before that (a spectacular W7 D1).

Alderweireld is a big miss – although it is not doing his ongoing contract negotiations any harm at all. He is a loss at the back and in midfield, with Dier having to be dragged in to the back three/ four (or three, then four, then three, then two at home to West Brom at the weekend). 

But if Spurs are serious about playing with the big boys, they need to get a tag on Daniel Levy before he disappears into his underground bunker for the duration of the January window.

Coming up this week:

Tuesday and Wednesday: Midweek matches previewed and Coupon Busters
Thursday: Weekend matches previews
Friday: Your weekend Coupon Busters
Saturday: Your TV guide to cashing in on Chelsea v Newcastle and Arsenal v Man United

Matt Nesbitt

Match Profiles - Your Weekend TV Guide

Saturday, November 25 2017

 

I don’t know how these things work, but Liverpool v Chelsea got the nod over Crystal Palace v Stoke and Swansea v Bournemouth for Saturday’s TV match. So that’s where we start…


Liverpool v Chelsea. 5.30pm on BT Sport

I’m a stats man. It should always be the first and is often the best place to look. After all, if you knew something happened nine times out of ten, you’d bet on it wouldn’t you?

However, I don’t fancy Liverpool to keep a fifth clean sheet on the spin. Chelsea’s big balls swing lower than the three pub teams (Southampton, Mirabor and Huddersfield) and the impotent Man United that Klopp’s lot kept out. That’s without even mentioning the midweek butchering in Seville. Oh.

Plus, only Man City have been better than Chelsea on the road so far. Two away goals is standard. And they’re three without conceding. History tells us that 11 of the last 12 Premier League meetings have seen goals at both ends and half of them have been draws. So here’s the juice…

Tap ins

  • Both Teams to Score looks nailed-on, but 4/7 is of little interest. 
  • The Draw has to be worth a look. But it’s not going to finish 0-0, so swerve the 13/5 in favour of 13/4 on the Draw & Both Teams to Score.   

Long Shots

  • Backing the Draw/ Draw in the Half-time/ Full-time market will push your return up to 19/4 (that’s a smidge under 5/1 in old money).
  • Coral are paying 4/1 for Both Teams to Score, Under 11.5 Corners & Over 35.5 Booking Points in their #YourCall section.

 

Moving on to Sunday, Southampton v Everton looks dreadful so let’s try to dredge a bit of value out of Man City shall we…? 

Huddersfield v Man City. 4pm on Sky

Huddersfield are two for two at home, including City’s not so noisy neighbours. But with City in their current mood, it’s all about how they approach the match. And how we approach the win markets. 

They are 100% on the road so far, conceding just three goals. Both to Bottom Half teams. Pep’s missing precious Stones could make them a bit vulnerable and I suspect bigger challenges to come might mean a certain amount of cruise control. So I’m ducking the clean sheet options and playing like this…

Tap Ins

  • Man City (-1) Goal Handicap at 8/15 and City/ City Half-time/ Full-time at 4/6 look the best alternatives to the Away Win. 

Long Shots

  • Coral are paying 4/1 on Man City to Win, Over 10.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points in their #YourCall section.

Have a gargle on that.

Matt Nesbitt

 

Coupon Busters - Game Week 13

Friday, November 24 2017

 

I like big bets and I cannot lie.

So this is where we try to pull the bookies' pants down with the best of the weekend’s Doubles, Trebles and Accas.

Brace yourself…


Match Results

  1. Man United to beat Brighton
  2. Tottenham to beat West Brom
  3. Man City to beat Huddersfield                     £1 Treble returns £1.89
  4. Bournemouth to beat Swansea                   £1 Four-fold returns £5.19
  5. Watford to beat Newcastle                          £1 Five-fold returns £18.25

The Treble is a gimme. Anything less than a home win for United and Spurs would be a disaster and Man City are going to win every match, right? And the boat race. And X-Factor.

Bournemouth are on a run of six good performances and four wins. Swansea aren’t. Watford are a bit more of a swerve-ball, but are full of muscle and goals at the mo. Newcastle aren’t. 


Win To Nil

  1. Man United to beat Brighton
  2. Tottenham to beat West Brom              £1 Double returns £3.18
  3. Man City to beat Huddersfield              £1 Treble returns £5.94

United’s midweek mugging is good news for clean sheet backers. The absence of Lindelof will be even better. Likewise, only a bit of player posing or another Bambi moment can cost us in the other two.

Chucking in Bournemouth and even Southampton could be punt-worthy, at chump change stakes. Pumping up the jam to 27/1 and 16/1 respectively. All five pays a technotronic 75/1.


Both Teams to Score

  1. West Ham v Leicester
  2. Liverpool v Chelsea                   £1 Double returns £2.90

If you only place one bet this week, I’d suggest this is it. With David Moyes in the hot seat, the Hammers will be keen to impress… other managers. The Transfer Window is just six weeks away, no time to lose. And Leicester have no trouble scoring v teams outside the Top Six. 

Only one of the last 12 meetings between Liverpool and Chelsea hasn’t paid out at BTTS. Back when Mohammed Salah was a Chelsea player. And jockey Michael Owen was still a footballer.  

Under 2.5 Goals

  1. Southampton v Everton
  2. Burnley v Arsenal                        £1 Double returns £3.79

Not sure you would trust even lending a goal to Southampton or Everton at the moment. And David Unsworth won’t want another drubbing in (surely) his last game. Burnley’s home fans have only witnessed two goals once all season. Arsenal’s five at Everton masks a shocking away return of just seven. I fancy this.


Under 3.5 Goals

  1. Southampton v Everton
  2. Burnley v Arsenal
  3. Tottenham v West Brom                        £1 Treble returns £2.65
  4. Swansea v Bournemouth
  5. Newcastle v Watford                              £1 Five-fold returns £4.20

I don’t usually fiddle with the Under 3.5s, but it looks like it could be a barren weekend. Particularly on Sunday, so this might help make it a bit more interesting. 

I’ll be back on Monday with another stream of excuses. But before that, there’s a couple of Match Profiles in the pipeline: Liverpool v Chelsea and Huddersfield v Man City.

Don’t touch that dial. 

Matt Nesbitt

Premier League Preview - Game Week 13

Thursday, November 23 2017

 

Is it me, or is this weekend as dull as it gets in the Premier League? Apart from Liverpool v Chelsea, perhaps.

 

Anyway, the Tap-ins are exactly that.  Most will be short-price only really any good for topping up Doubles, Trebles and Accas. You’ll get my pick of the best in Friday’s Coupon Busters post.

The Smart Money bets show you the best way to squeeze the bookies’ pips for a bit of value. 

The Scorecasts are for tackling things like Sky’s Super 6 £250k or Colossus’ £5k - £5 million jackpots   

And there’s £100 in free bets with Colossus is you sign up with this code: RAFMTS5UU4

You’re welcome.


West Ham v Leicester
David Moyes can expect a reaction from his first week in charge. But it might not be the one he wants. Leicester are handy away to mid/ lower table fodder – three draws and win so far.  
Tap in: Leicester Double Chance at 4/9
Smart Money: Draw & Both Teams to Score at 13/4
Scorecast: A Desmond - 2-2.  

Crystal Palace v Stoke City
Roy has restored a bit of faith at home (W1 D2) and could resurrect Christ-ian almighty this weekend. Still don’t know what to make of Stoke this season. Apart from a loss.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 10/11
Smart Money: Draw & Both Teams to Score at 7/2
Scorecast: Four 2-2 draws between them in their last five. 1-1 it is. 

Man United v Brighton
United are better than City. At home. So far. Brighton have won their last two on the road but are yet to find the net against a team outside the Bottom Seven. Looks like another bullying. 
Tap in: Home Win but don’t you dare at 1/5. 
Smart Money: Win to Nil or Utd/ Utd in the HT/FT market. Both 4/6 
Scorecast: Can’t keep hitting 4s. 3-0.

Newcastle United v Watford
Just one point and two goals v teams outside the Bottom Seven for Toon so far. And they’re missing some much needed muscle.  Watford are revelling their Top Eight status and have scored twice in every away game.
Tap in: Watford Over 0.5 Goals at 4/9
Smart Money: Watford & Under 3.5 Goals at 13/4
Scorecast:  0-1. No, 0-2. No, 0-1

Swansea v Bournemouth
Five defeats on the bounce (and seven from eight) has got the Swans in a tailspin. Firing seven blanks in 12 matches is as big a worry as Bournemouth’s current upswing.  
Tap in: Bournemouth Draw No Bet at 4/5
Smart Money: The Away Win looks decent at 17/10. Bournemouth Win To Nil even better at 17/5.
Scorecast: One will do v Swansea, so 0-1.

Tottenham v West Brom

A trip to Wembley with no manager might be just what Albion need after a punishing couple of months. Shame Tottenham will be there all pumped up on Champions League bonuses.
Tap in: Home Win, but 1/4 can fuck off. Especially when…
Smart Money: …Tottenham & Under 3.5 Goals will double your money at Evens.
Scorecast: At a canter 2-0

Liverpool v Chelsea
Liverpool are on a run of four clean sheets at home. But you have to fancy Chelsea to wipe their arses on it come Saturday teatime. They like a draw these two – six in the last 12 – and neither would turn their nose up.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 4/7
Smart Money: The Draw & Both Teams to Score pays 13/4. 
Scorecast: If it’s level after 70 mins, both will settle for 1-1.

Southampton v Everton
Southampton never seem to beat anybody, but survive on their efficiency against the Bottom Third. Everton are treading water until they buy a new manager, but it must feel shit.  
Tap in: Pfft! The smart move here is to put your money behind a bar somewhere. That hasn’t got Sky.
Smart Money: There’s a bit of value in the Draw/ Southampton HT/ FT at 17/5.
Scorecast: Saints could edge it 1-0.

Burnley v Arsenal
Only goal difference separates the teams. Burney have won their last three and conceded just twice at home all season. Meanwhile, Arsenal have lost four from six on the road (W1 D1), failing to score in three of them. So naturally they start 8/15 favourites… 
Tap in: Burnley (+1) Match Handicap at 8/15. Same price as the Arsenal win, folks.
Smart Money: Burnley & Under 2.5 Goals has to be backed at 11/1.
Scorecast: Suspect Arsenal will get a 1-1 (but value is value).

Huddersfield v Man City

Huddersfield have acquitted themselves well at home, losing just once (to Tottenham, who were ahead early) and have already beaten Man United. So there could be a surprise in store. Or maybe not. 
Tap in: Away Win but don’t go anywhere near 1/6.
Smart Money: Man City to Nil at 17/20 is short enough.
Scorecast: A ruthlessly efficient 0-3.

Check in tomorrow for my Coupon Busters and get the pick of the best Doubles, Trebles and Accas to take into battle this weekend.

Yeah? 

Matt Nesbitt

Five things we learned in Game Week 12

Tuesday, November 21 2017

 

We didn't collect as much as I'd have liked at the weekend. But we did find out a few things...

1. Arsenal do have a set after all…

Or were Tottenham just a bit shit? They certainly looked flat. Kane looked like he’s carrying a knock and Alderweireld’s absence costs them at the back and in midfield, with Eric Dier dragged in to deputise.

But fair dos. It’s six in six at home for Arsenal and all the home fans had to boo was the withdrawal of Lacazette to shut up shop on 73 minutes. The first win and clean sheet in seven against Spurs evidentally still not enough for some... 

2. David Moyes hasn’t lost it…

The dressing room, that is. But it won’t be long. Calling out his ‘big players with big reputations’ after just 90 minutes in the last chance saloon was a curious decision. West Ham’s transfer window will already be steaming up with breath of agents wondering what to spend their commissions on in February...

3. Huddersfield, Southampton and Swansea travel light…

They certainly don’t take any goals with them. Another blank away day for all three, helping to land Saturday’s four-fold acca – hope you were on. These three stooges will remain on our radar for the foreseeable whenever they board the team bus. 

Newcastle made up the fab four-fold. But not before Dwight Gayle scuppered our To Nil double, scuffing in Old Trafford’s first away goal of the campaign after Lindelof’s Bambi moment. 

4. Club owners don’t give a monkeys about punters…

Tony Pulis has been sacked just in time to walk straight into the Wales job (and before you start feeling sorry for Ryan Giggs getting pipped at the post again, remember what he did to poor Rhodri…)

No one’s surprised, there’s been a gaping hole at the bottom of the Baggies for a while now. But as a punter I am a bit upset because you know where you stand with a manager like Tony. 

Crystal Pulis were a phenomenal Under 2.5 Goals team and last season West Brom were among the most reliable in the Premier League, if you knew what to look for…

Against Top Seven: back against them home and away (W1 D2 L11); Against Bottom Six: back them to win at home (W5 D1 L0) and draw away (L2 D4 L0); Against Mid-table, keep it in your pocket.

5. Man City are poor value…

For betting on, I mean. Saturday morning’s 12/1 City to remain unbeaten all season had been slashed to 8s by the time Shearer, Neville and Keown had spent all weekend masturbating over them. I’m not having it, personally.

Not having the Even Money to beat Chelsea’s 103-goal record. Not having the 4/9 Kevin De Bruyne to win Player of the Year. Not having the 1/6 to win the title.

Not saying they won’t all come in. But they are all bookies’ prices - and you don’t make money placing those.

At BadMan we bet smart. And this is what I've got coming up this week...

Thursday: Every Premier League match previewed

Friday: Coupon Busters

Saturday: Your TV guide to cashing in this weekend.

Matt Nesbitt

Weekend Coupon Busters

Saturday, November 18 2017

 

Okay then, Badmen and Badwomen (and Badtransgenders – we’re a broad Badchurch here…). Here’s my take on the best value Doubles and Trebles to do some Coupon Busting this weekend.  

At BadMan we avoid big Accas – they are bookmakers’ bets. But they don’t like Trebles. And they can’t stand Doubles. So that’s where we’ll plan our attack.

Eyes down, look in…

Match Results

  1. Bournemouth to beat Huddersfield
  2. Man United to beat Newcastle
  3. Liverpool to beat Southampton
  4. Burnley to beat Swansea

The four travelling teams have mustered just 12 goals between them in 19 away days. And a third of those were against Palace. All four home teams are in winning form, with Liverpool, Burnley and Bournemouth on the up. United can’t afford another slip.

  • £1 four-fold returns £5.80
  • £1 Any three of the four returns £2.40

 

Win To Nil

  1. Burnley to beat Swansea
  2. Man United to beat Newcastle

Four of Burnley’s five and all seven of United’s wins have paid out To Nil. Gift horse. Mouth.

  • £1 returns £4.68

 

Both Teams to Score

  1. Arsenal v Tottenham
  2. Leicester v Man City
  3. Watford v West Ham

Fourteen of the last 18 North London derbies have seen goals at both ends. Watford and West Ham have respective five from six and five from seven form and we all know if Leicester score two, City’s ballers will get three.  

  • £1 returns £3.40

 

Over 2.5 Goals

  1. Watford v West Ham
  2. Leicester v Man City

Watford, West Ham and City are all over Over 2.5. Leicester haven’t got a choice.

  • £1 returns £1.80

 

Under 2.5 Goals

  1. Burnley v Swansea
  2. Man United v Newcastle
  3. Bournemouth v Huddersfield

The away teams rarely take goals on their travels. Bournemouth and Burnley don’t like spending them, so one will do. The only worry is if United are feeling frisky in the last ten minutes. But there’s Champions League business to attend to midweek, so I reckon Jose will be backing the bus into position at 1-0.

  • £1 returns £3.88

I've used a £1 example but I'm not telling you how to live, brother. Bet what you like. 

That's how BadMan is betting this weekend.

Matt Nesbitt

BadMan Betting's Weekend TV Guide

Friday, November 17 2017

 

Now that England have been re-installed as World Champions-elect after gloriously avoiding defeat against Germany and Brazil, let's get back to some Premier League business shall we...

Two tasty TV treats on offer Saturday. Starting at the Emirates…

Arsenal v Tottenham. 12.30pm on Sky.

Yes, I know the formbook is supposed to be torn up, then thrown out the window in local derbies. But I’ve done neither.    

Man City aside, this is the PL’s best home team v best away team. History says ‘nip’, I say ‘tuck’. Nip, tuck. Nip, tuck. 

There’s no denying the PL power has shifted from red to white in recent years – Spurs are unbeaten in six meetings - but picking a winner is pissing in the wind. We can expect goals though. Fourteen of the last 18 North London knees-ups have seen goals at both ends.

Alderwerield’s twinged hamstring and the doubley doubtful Spurs keepers Lloris and Vorm will only help matters. Keeper No. 3 Gazzaniga will deputise, despite having a funny name. Ha! Gazzaniga. 

Tap In

  • Both Teams to Score is a gimme, but of no interest to us at odds of 1/2. The Draw also looks handy, paying out in three of the last four and four of the last six PL meetings. But we’ll swerve the 5/2 in favour of the 16/5 on offer in the Draw & Both Teams to Score. 

Long Shot

  • I’m not a massive fan of First/ Last Scorer bets, but a well-rested Harry Kane has hit six in six against Arsenal and if anyone ever fit the profile he does. So I’ll go Last Scorer at 10/3.

And for a right, rollicking knees up of a price have a bang on this…

Speculative Effort

  • Coral are paying 13/2 for the Draw, Over 3.5 Cards and Harry Kane to Score (via #YourCall).

(Ladbrokes (#GetAPrice) and William Hill (#YourOdds) will offer similar prices). 

Next up, we go to the Theatre of increasingly dull Dreams... 

Man United v Newcastle United
5.30pm BT Sport.

United have looked a bit wobbly since coming up against some Top Half teams. But only City have been better at home so far. There’s talk of Zlatan being on the bench, but probably just to lend Lukaku his banjo for the cows-arse hitting duties that he has been neglecting in his last seven matches. 

Lascelles will be a bigger miss for Toon than Jones for United if neither make it. But scoring will pose bigger problems for Newcastle than keeping them out the other end. They’ve fired three blanks in five away trips and De Gea is yet to beaten at Old Trafford.  

Tap Ins

  • We can’t ignore the Home Win, but give the 2/7 the finger and take the Win To Nil at 5/6. Or even better have a nibble on the Man United & Under 2.5 Goals at much saucier 2/1. 

I don’t trust the fours they were hitting teams for earlier in the season. And there’s Champions League business to attend to in the week, so expect Jose to start reversing the bus into position at 1-0. 

Long Shots

  • Newcastle have developed a taste for 1-0s this season. Two for, four against. And Jose likes a 1-0 almost as much as he does a 2-0. If this match was played five times, I’d fancy at least one to end 1-0 so 5/1 is worth a punt in my book.  

Dip your bread in, bad men.
 

Matt Nesbitt

Welcome to BadMan Betting

Thursday, November 16 2017

 

Fancy making a few quid from the Premier League? Come on in.

I like big bets. I cannot lie.

My name is Matt Nesbitt and I’ve linked up with Ben Dinnery and PremierInjuries.com to bring you a weekly guide to pulling bookmakers’ pants down.

We call it Badman Betting

On these pages we’ll be targeting SMART bets. VALUE bets.

Not the bets the bookies want you to place. Not the ones that fat Ray interrupts the adverts to tell you about. What you’ll get is solid, stats-backed tips at decent prices. And you’ll make money.

I won’t go chasing 10/1 winners or 10-match accas every week. ‘Cos it’s just not realistic.

You’d be better off finding a nice big wall to piss your punting money up every weekend...

At BadMan Betting we’ll be looking to double, maybe treble our wedge every week.

And if that doesn’t sound like much, consider this…

If you knew a bank that you could deposit £20… £40…or £100 into at a quarter to three every Saturday afternoon. Then go back two hours later and collect £50… £100… or £200… You’d do it.

Every week.

Picking winners isn’t difficult. Making money from them is...

FACT: 98.2%* of football bettors never any make money. (*Betting Research Unit, Nottingham Trent University).

Yep, you read that right… NEVER. MAKE. ANY. MONEY.

The reason? Simple - most punters don’t expect to win. They treat placing football bets like buying a lottery ticket.

Chasing a massive payout from big accumulators… First Goal Scorers… Scorecasts… Correct Scores…

But this is just like tucking your hard-earned inside the sweaty g-string of your local bookmaker…

Sure, you’ll get a momentary smile and twinkle. But behind those dead eyes they’re all thinking exactly the same thing: ‘Thanks for your cash, you loser. Now fuck off.’

At Badman Betting this is how we do it…

And this is how it’s done.

Every Friday, you’ll get a summary of the weekend’s Coupon Busters. That is, the best Doubles and Trebles on offer in:

  • Both Teams to Score
  • Under/ Over 2.5 Goals
  • Match Results

On Saturday morning you’ll get Match Profiles of the weekend’s TV games, highlighting where the smart money is going. Breaking bets down into:

  • Tap ins - Our shortest price bets, but we’ll target the best possible value based on stats and form. For example, we will never back Man City to Win at Home at 1/3, but might take the 6/4 to Win & Over 2.5 Goals            
  • Long shots – Bigger risk, but bigger returns and always underpinned by solid stats and savvy punting strategy. For example, we’ll swerve the Draw at 2/1 in favour of the Draw & Both Teams to Score at 7/2.     
  • Speculative Efforts – Big prices, cashing in on bookies’ build-your-own Twitter bets – #YourCall (Coral), #GetAPrice (Ladbrokes), #YourOdds (William Hill), etc. Cashing in on bankable Corners, Cards and Shots data.

And you’ll even get some trading advice for the lucrative FootballIndex.com player trading platform.  

Get on board with Badman today for my free weekly advice...

Sign up here to get an email alert for every new post...

Join me for a bit of betting, banter and coupon busting every weekend. 

Matt Nesbitt

BadMan Betting

Who the hell is Matt Nesbitt?

Thursday, November 16 2017

 

So who is this Matt Nesbitt?

A punter, just like you. Probably takes it more serious. Definitely puts more hours in. Likely to have had a few more winners - and more losers too.

I’ve been providing professional betting advice since the 90s. That’s pre-internet, pre-email, pre-Opta stats - when Ceefax was considered cutting edge.

A time when tips were sent by post, phone line, pigeon, smoke signal, town crier, whatever you could get…

(Well, that’s not quite true. But if you’d described the dark arts of Social Media to me back then, I would’ve had you in the ducking stool. Sharpish.)

 Getting on early…

The tapes went up on my punting career early. April 2nd 1977 to be precise.

The bet was Red Rum in the Grand National. The price was 7/1. The stake 10p. I know what you’re thinking – ‘baller’.

Like all first bets, of course, it sluiced in. And BOSH! – that’s you for life, sunshine…

It was for me anyway. The memory of my dad counting out eight ‘10p’s into my sweaty little, seven-year-old mitts is as fresh as if it happened this morning.

From then on in it was all about that buzz. The bolt. The charge of collecting   

The art of ‘collecting’…

The planned football career that would let me spend every afternoon in the bookies was cut mercifully short. So I started the spending the mornings there too.

But instead of taking the well-trodden Shilton-shortcut… the Merson-motorway… the Hamaan-highway straight to Palookaville. I learned to bet smart. Put the work in. Got good. Started winning. Made a nice little living.

But you soon learn that bookmakers don’t care much for winners.

That's what the bookies really think!

First they limited my accounts. Then they closed them. Writing to me to make it clear I was persona not grata.

(Which is pretty funny as two of the UK’s biggest bookies now employ me. But I’ll get on to that…)

So, relieved of my livelihood I had to do something. Then I had an idea…

I started sharing my betting advice. Selling tips. First sending big, heavy manuals through post, then monthly newsletters... Then phone messages, emails, websites… Then Talksport, lads mags, bit of TV…  and I seem to be the ‘go to’ guy when Five Live need a quote about match fixing or the latest ex-player that’s lost his kids at poker.

Working for the enemy…

Then along came free stats and Social Media and overnight EVERYONE became expert, a tipster, or a ‘betting guru’ – whatever that is.  

But by then, the bookies had come a-calling and I confess… I went over to the darkside. And now write, consult and consort from behind enemy lines.    

(I’m not supposed say which ones really. But they are two of the UK’s biggest hitters. And recently merged. And rhyme with schmoral and schpadbrokes. Mum’s the word.)

But I’ve always been a punter at heart. For me it’s all about that buzz. The bolt. The charge of collecting. 

So why not join me for a bit of betting, banter and busting coupons.  We’ll be betting with coins and collecting in notes, pulling the bookies pants down every weekend.

That’s how a BadMan bets.

Who the hell is Matt Nesbitt?

Punter. Tipster. Collector. Of winnings.

Meet the good boy behind Badman Betting...

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

The planned football career that would allow Matt to spend every afternoon in the bookies was cut mercifully short. So he was able to spend his mornings there too.

But rather than spunk his (sweet) FA pension on a day-tripper to Palookaville, Matt played smart. He watched, he listened. Learned his trade and earned a reputation.

But the bookies don’t like a winner...

First they closed his accounts. Then they tried legal action to shut down his tipping services. Now they employ him.

Matt has been providing winning football advice since 1998. And whether it has been via post, premium rate phone line, email, TV or Twitter – he has always made punters money.

Sign-up today for Matt’s weekly betting advice.

On TipTV

On TipTV

Archive

December 2017
November 2017