Premier League Preview - Game Week 25: Wednesday

Wednesday, January 31 2018

 

Winners from all three matches last night, with the 5/1 Correct Score taking the cake at West Ham. Seven more to tackle tonight - if you can drag yourself away from Transfer Deadline Day… 

The Tap Ins are included regardless of price, so I’d reserve them for topping up Accas at best. Or even bypass them totally. 

The Smart Money bets are the best way of dredging a bit of value from the match. And any Long Shots are decent priced (usually 3/1 or bigger) punts that have some statistical merit. 

Scorecasts are priced up too. 

Here me now...

Wednesday:
Chelsea v Bournemouth

Antonio is a bit of a miserable Conte these days, isn’t he? We’re led to believe that his ‘orrible boss has a penchant for lanky strikers that no-one else wants. But I daresay Eddie Howe would swap squads. 
Chelsea’s 3-0 swatting of Newcastle was their first home win in four but you’ve got to think their flair players will breach Bournemouth’s defence. Everybody bar Newcastle and Swansea have.  So can they score? And how many. Top Six evidence suggests no. And Chelsea have been efficient v the Bottom Third – 30 from 33pts.
Tap in: Chelsea Win at 2/7
Smart Money: Chelsea Win & Under 3.5 at 6/5
Long Shot: Chelse Win, BTTS: YES, Under 11.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points (Coral #YourCall) at 4/1
Scorecast: Same as the EFL Cup - 2-1 – 15/2
 
Everton v Leicester City
Leicester are worthy favourites here. They look energised, confident and – Mahrez aside, perhaps -  their big players look variously settled in and settled down. And get this – they’ve only conceded once in six matches. That’s bad news for Everton, because no amount of Big Sam’s defensive drills and performance data will help them hit the net. Best they can muster here will be a draw, I fancy. 
Tap in: Leicester Draw No Bet at 4/5
Smart Bet: Leicester Win & BTTS at 11/2 (Price Boost at Coral)
Long Shot: Leicester Win, BTTS: Yes, Under 10.5 Corners & Over 35.5 Booking Points at 14/1
Scorecast: Leicester on points but 1-1 – 5/1  

Newcastle United v Burnley
Dyche Dyche baby has been constantly talking up his players during a tough spell – no wins in eight, four defeats on the spin. Keeping confidence buoyant for when the punishing run of fixtures cleared and winnable ones turned up again. Admittedly, Huddersfield and Palace came and went with just a point to show, but I can’t see them leaving with nothing here. Bit of value in the away win too. 
Tap in: Double Chance: Burnley or Draw at 7/10
Smart Money: Burnley Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 10/3
Long Shot: Draw/ Burnley HT/FT at 13/2
Scorecast: Burnley need this so 0-1 – 15/2

Southampton v Brighton
Brighton took the stiffs to Boro in the cup so obviously fancy this one. Not that that will send shivers down Southampton’s spine, the FA Cup win was their first on the road in six and only the third all season.
The Saints are a funny lot. Moody. A punters’ nightmare.  Pick their matches. And draw a lot of  games. 
Tap in: Pff! Not on my watch.
Smart Money: Draw & Under 2.5 Goals at 14/5
Long Shot: 
Scorecast: An edgy 0-0 – 13/2

Man City v West Brom
West Brom beat Liverpool in the FA Cup… Liverpool beat Man City in the PL… So pile into the 20/1 Away Win, right? Well, no, It doesn’t work like that sadly. But those odds are genuine, by the way. 
Albion have turned a corner since New Year and aren’t far away from being the mid-table team we all thought they were. This is a free hit too. Their next five home matches will save their season, not this one. 
The trick with City is pitching just how arsed they are. Sunday’s Cup win was their first clean sheet in seven and there have only been four from their 12 at home all season.  And West Brom have score in their last five on the road, so let’s go for it shall we?
Tap in: Man City to Win at 1/7
Smart Money: Man City Win & BTTS at 2/1
Long Shot: 
Scorecast: Let’s go 3-1 – 10/1

Stoke Cty v Watford
Watford are clinging to a Top Half despite one win in 11. No, really. But they are only one defeat away from level pegging with fourth bottom Stoke. And two away from rock bottom.  So this can be called a six-pointer between two teams eight places apart. 
Neither manager has had enough time to make it all the way to the drawing board, if he even thinks he needs to. Even the Over 2.5 Goals banker is in question. Not sure either team is good enough to win it, so nothing silly here.
Tap In: Stoke Draw No Bet at 6/10
Smart Money: 
Long Shot: 
Scorecast: Let’s try a desmond - 2-2 – 12/1

Tottenham v Man United
Ah, remember the days when this would be a guaranteed goal-fest? With Spurs usually 3-0 at half time, only to lose 4-5 or something… This won’t.
A cursory glance at Tottenham’s season stats tells you the Spurs story… Unbeaten in 18 v teams outside the Top Seven. Five defeats from six v Top Seven. Anything less than three points here will create a bit of a gap between them and the Top Four, which will only get more difficult to close when Cups, Champions Leagues and pressure come into play.  United have won their last three on the road and not conceded in six. I can’t them getting beaten here.
Tap In: Under 3.5 Goals at 4/11
Smart Money: Draw & Under 2.5 Goals at 17/5 
Long Shot: 
Scorecast: Has the look of a 1-1 – 11/2

It’s all go this week. Tune in on Thursday for your weekend preview.

Matt Nesbitt   

Premier League Preview - Game Week 25: Tuesday

Monday, January 29 2018

 

Aah, the magic of the Cup…

Nothing captures the spirit of the world’s greatest Cup competition more than the beaming smile of Mauricio Pochettino as he left the pitch at Newport County. His excitement at the prospect of cramming in another frantic game of head-tennis in between Liverpool and Arsenal fixture and just a week before Juventus arrive in the Champions League, was clear for all to see.

And what about Leroy Sane’s little face lighting up at the thought of missing City’s trip to Basel and the EFL Cup Final, thanks to Joe Bennett’s giant-killing calf-high tackle…

It’s not all glamour though.

We slipped on a few banana skins – at Liverpool, Huddersfield and Newport; but hit a couple of bulls-eyes elsewhere – a 10/3 at Cardiff, 6 and 7/1s at Boro; and were about 10 seconds away from another 7pt profit at Yeovil.

Here’s a breakdown to help guide your preference moving forward:

Tap Ins

4 out of 7

-1.67pts

Smart Bets

2 out of 6

0.15pts

Long Shots

2 out of 4

7.33pts

Scorecasts

1 out of 7

1.0pt

 

Back on Premier League business, we’ve got a full coupon spread over two nights. Three Tuesday, seven Wednesday.

The Tap Ins are included regardless of price, so I’d reserve them for topping up Accas at best. Or even bypass them totally.

The Smart Money bets are the best way of dredging a bit of value from the match. And any Long Shots are decent priced (usually 3/1 or bigger) punts that have some statistical merit.

Scorecasts are priced up too.

Have it.

Tuesday: 
Swansea v Arsenal

Swansea might’ve turned a bit of a corner with their win over Liverpool. If not, they are certainly hanging around it with a bit of intent. They are unbeaten in five since Carlos got stuck into them. Admittedly, three of those results came against lower division teams in Cups – although Wolves are technically only one place below in the football pyramid – but it’s enough to suggest Arsenal won’t get things all their own way.
The Gunners are shocking away from home.  We know they can play and might benefit from the Dirty Sanchez business being over with, but one win in seven on the road v Bottom Half teams makes the 1/2 Away Win appeal about as much as a shitty stick. 
Tricky one to dredge a profit from, this one.  So we’ll play the value.
Tap in: Swansea (+2) Match Handicap at 6/10
Smart Money: 
Long Shot: Draw & Both Teams to Score at 9/2
Scorecast: Let’s go 1-1 at 7/1

West Ham v Crystal Palace
Two teams in recovery – not victims, survivors – operating in much the same ball park in terms of ambition, scale and current form. A classic six-pointer that both managers would probably settle as a one-pointer, but would see a no-pointer as points dropped.  
West Ham go into the match with a cruel injury list, while Palace have had a nice ten days to prep. The fixture at Selhurst Park ended 2-2 and West Ham’s last six have had goals at both ends, so that’s the way forward here. And coupled with the generous looking Match Result pricing, there is plenty of value to go after if you fancy a big priced punt. With West Ham’s injury tipping the scales in Palace’s favour.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 17/20
Smart Money: 
Long Shot: Palace Win & BTTS at 17/4
Scorecast: Can’t split them 1-1 – 5/1

Huddersfield Town v Liverpool
This looks an ugly fixture for Liverpool after successive stumbles at Swansea and at home to West Brom (in the FA Cup). But even a misfiring (like v Swansea) and defensively shambolic (like v Albion) should probably have enough to get past Huddersfield. Just 4pts from eight matches v Top Seven teams – and 22 goals shipped – suggests that even a top end performance might fall short. They tend to score in singles too – averaging exactly one goal at home.
Liverpool can only boast two away clean sheets, but they usually pack two or more on away trips. Only City have scored more on the road. They need this, so I’m backing business a bit more like usual.
Tap in: Liverpool to Win at 1/3
Smart Money: Liverpool to Win & BTTS – 11/4 (price boost from 9/4 at Coral)
Long Shot: Liverpool Win, Both Teams to Score: YES, Over 9.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points at 11/2 (#YourCall Coral)
Scorecast: Back in the saddle 1-3 – 10/1

Same time tomorrow?

Matt Nesbitt

FA Cup 4th Round

Friday, January 26 2018

 

I’ve shamelessly handpicked a smattering of cup ties I happen to give a sweet FA about. But don’t forget, BaDMeN - picking and choosing what we bet on is our biggest advantage over the bookies. That poor sucker has to be on EVERY match…

The Tap Ins are included regardless of price, so I’d reserve them for topping up Accas at best. Or even bypass them totally. 

The Smart Money bets are the best way of dredging a bit of value from the match. And any Long Shots are decent priced (usually 3/1 or bigger) punts that have some statistical merit. 

I’ve included prices on my Scorecasts too. Two a week is likely to cover your stakes if you’re backing them all. Three and the Milky Bars are on you. 

Eyes down...

Friday:
Yeovil Town v Man United
Some classic ‘magic of the cup’ fodder here. Fourth bottom in League Two plays second in the Premier League… Yeovil’s squad cost £65 and United’s cost a squillion pounds… blah blah blah. If I could get Even Money on somebody comparing Yeovil’s annual wage bill with what Alexis Sanchez throws away per week (or something), I would bet the farm on it. But to business…
We know what happens here – Yeovil huff and puff, are brave and heroic. But ultimately United’s class shows through. Expect plenty of big hitters to make the trip, the FA Cup could be important to Jose this season. 
Tap in: United Win – 1/7 
Smart Money: United Win & Under 3.5 Goals – 21/20
Long Shot: 
Scorecast: An efficient 0-3 – 5/1

Saturday:
Huddersfield Town v Birmingham City
The FA Cup won’t be a priority for Huddersfield, but likewise it could be a source of welcome high notes in a season which could get sticky in the coming months. They have been pretty efficient at home to the PL’s Bottom Six and won’t want to go into fixtures with Liverpool and Man United (up next) on the back of a cup shock.
This won’t be a priority for Birmingham either, avoiding the drop to League One – the Last Rites for many a ‘big’ club – is much more important. The Blues have taken just 7pts from 14 away games, but only once shipped more than two. 
Tap in: Huddersfield Win – 8/11
Smart Money: Huddersfield Win to Nil – 6/4
Long Shot: 
Scorecast: A steady 2-0.

Middlesbrough v Brighton
Hmm, there could be a bit of value on offer here. The bookies makes Middlesbrough favourites based on their decent home record and Brighton’s shocking away form. And the Home Win is the Racing Post's Banker of the Week. But I’m going the other way…
A closer look at Boro’s numbers revelas just 5pts from 11 matches v teams above them. Which, let’s not forget, Brighton are. Against the Bottom Nine, Boro are almost perfect – 10 wins (and a draw) from 11. Which tells me they punch effectively below their weight, but rely on scratching and pulling hair above it.
Brighton travel badly and have bigger fish to fry – including a south coast derby on Wednesday. But are always set up well and haven’t conceded more than twice on the road - including trips to Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham and Man United. So I think they will edge this.
Tap in: Under 2.5 Goals – 1/2
Smart Money: Brighton & Under 3.5 Goals – 29/10
Long Shot: Draw/ Brighton HT/FT – 6/1
Scorecast: A tight squeak but 0-1 – 7/1

Newport County v Tottenham
Spurs play Man United on Wednesday. Then Liverpool, then Arsenal, then Juventus. So safe to say Moussa Sissoko will be starting this match. But the FA Cup could be an important competition for Tottenham, especially if a Top Four places slips out of reach. So the question is, can a second string Spurs team still get past Newport County..?
The League Two outfit have only lost twice at home this season (although one was v Barnet, currently bottom of the whole world). They’re in their best form so the season too, winning four of the last five. But the key stats for me is that they’ve conceded in nine of their 14 home matches. So Tottenham’s reserves should outscore them.   
Tap in: Tottenham Win – 2/11
Smart Money: Tottenham Win & Under 3.5 Goals – 5/4
Long Shot: Draw/ Tottenham HT/ FT – 3/1
Scorecast: Two should do so  0-2 – 11/2

Liverpool v West Brom
I fancy Liverpool for the FA Cup this season. Just close your eyes for a second and imagine Jurgen’s big grin as he is interviewed on the Wembley pitch amidst a shower of red and white confetti… Ooh, here comes that scamp Mo Salah squirting a water bottle at the camera… and he’s only gone and put the cup lid on his head!!!
You with me?
Anyway, with their customary blip out of the way (at Swansea last week) the only wrinkle in my forehead is the Tuesday encounter at Huddersfield, which could affect their line-up.
I daresay the Baggies would swap midweek features – they are at Man City – and need PL status much more than a cup run, so I think they will set up to win this. Shit or bust. And I’m backing bust. 
Tap in: Liverpool to Win – 1/3
Smart Money: Liverpool Win & Under 3.5 Goals – 2/1
Long Shot: 
Scorecast: A competitive 2-1 

Sunday:
Chelsea v Newcastle United
At the risk of sounding like a broken record – or a dirty CD, or corrupted download, or whatever da kidz listen to these days – the importance of the FA Cup could increase incrementally with Chelsea’s stumbling PL form. All is clearly not well if they are seriously trying to pouch Peter Crouch – if that happens, I’m getting my boots out the loft by the way…  But players tend to win tournaments and I’d suggest Chelsea have the talent and temperament better suited to winning Cups than Leagues right now. Plus nine wins from nine with 27 scored and just two conceded says Newcastle will be concentrating on the league come Sunday. Particularly if Chelsea start like they against Arsenal in midweek.
Tap in: Chelsea Win – 4/9
Smart Money: Chelsea Win & Under 3.5 Goals – 5/4
Long Shot: 
Scorecast: A routine 2-0 – 6/1

Cardiff City v Man City
If anyone needed proof of City’s ability to move through the gears at will, then the 2-0 up, back to 2-2, then 2-3 ahead win at Bristol City was it.  So their ability to outscore Cardiff isn’t in question. It’s the home team that are the variable in this equation.
One home win in four isn’t too pretty, but we can put two defeats down to, ahem, Christmas fatigue… Otherwise the Bluebirds are flying high in the Championship based chiefly on a powerful home record and Neil Warnock’s effective, industrial football. They won’t outplay City, that’s for shiz.  
Tap in: Man City to Win – 1/4
Smart Money: City Win & Both Teams to Score – 9/5
Long Shot: Raheem Sterling Last Goal – 10/3
Scorecast: A hard fought 1-3 – 10/1

Here’s to a sweet FA Cup weekend.

Matt Nesbitt 

What we learned from Game Week 24

Wednesday, January 24 2018

 

Joey Barton is right. Sometimes…

Joey Barton has been sounding off again this week. Telling BBC Radio Four’s Today programme that ‘50% of footballers bet’ and that gambling is ‘culturally engrained’ in the sport.

And he’s right. 

The blanket ban on ALL football people betting on ALL football is as ridiculous as it is unenforceable. 

It means if the kitman at Yeovil backs PSG to win the Champions League, he’s guilty. If Cristiano Ronaldo has a tenner on Enfield to beat Lowestoft in the Ryman Premier, he’s guilty. 

And if an academy player in Turkish Third Division happens to post on Facebook that he fancies himself to score on his debut this weekend and you – yes, YOU! – happen to spot it and include it in your weekend coupon, guess what? Young Hakan is guilty. And facing a chunky fine and ban.
 
Less than 0.1% ever do, of course. But Joey has (£30k and 18-months, reduced to five on appeal). Perhaps he should have used a false name, or a separate account to place his estimated 15,000 over 12 years. Most do. Or maybe just learn to keep his fat mouth shut.

He couldn’t have been winning many. After all, a bookie is not going to give up a cash cow to the FA for breaking the rules. Bookies don’t give any more of shit over the welfare of their customers than the FA do about the welfare of players.

The stringing up of Barton is merely a scramble for the moral high ground by the same degenerates that can be bribed into awarding the World Cup to 50 degree Qatar or war-torn Russia.  

Matt Nesbitt is wrong. Sometimes…

The FA Cup is hogging the spotlight this weekend, but we’ll be back on Premier League detail quick sharp with a full program on Tuesday and Wednesday. And there’s gonna be some changes around these parts…

As tipsters go, I’m a broad church. At BaDMaN we embrace all sects, castes and denominations of punter. Come one, come all. 

It makes no odds to me if you betting 10p, £10 or ten grand. So I’ve always tried to provide all-purpose advice to embrace all types of punter.  But that doesn’t always work. You can end up falling between two stools.

So from here on in, for every match you’ll get the best Tap In, Smart Money, Long Shot and Scorecast bet. Regardless of price, just purely based on the stats and my take on things. 

Each bet will be considered ‘1pt’ and each category measured in strike rate and pts profit. Which will I will update and share with you after every set fixtures. 

Emily Ratajkowski is fit. Always…

So if you looking for bankers for accumulators, you’re covered; seeking out a bit of value, you’re good; fancy a punt on some big prices, you’re golden. Likewise, I will be recording the strike rate of Match Results for those targeting the Pools (yes, they’re still going), in-store betting coupons or things like  Colossus

Last weekend Previews delivered seven out of ten Match Results, with only Stoke’s win upsetting Saturday’s cart before Tottenham and Liverpool’s handiwork. And three Correct Scores – paying between 6/1 and 7/1.    

But a combination of me being a bit shit with the Coupon Busters and Liverpool being a bit shit at Swansea, we managed to come away 3pts down on the weekend. 

From here on though, BaDMeN it’ll be all falling into barrels full of thumbs and coming sucking Emily Ratajkowski’s tits.  

FACT!

Matt Nesbitt
   

TV Guide - Game Week 24: Swansea v Liverpool

Monday, January 22 2018

 

Tottenham ruined our chances of landing a 10/1 Acca tonight. Or perhaps Southampton ruined. Either way, it’s ruined. 

We still would’ve needed Liverpool to win at Swansea, but for a 10/1 payout I’d take that all day.

Things started to go wrong before 1pm Saturday lunchtime. Already 2-0 up, Chelsea were well on the way to taking down two Coupon Busters, before most games had even kicked off.

Arsenal followed suit then Watford put the boot in when I was already on my hands and knees spitting out teeth.  

A second goal from Tottenham would’ve helped me to my feet and tucked 10/3 and 13/2 winners in my top pocket. Ah well. Them’s the beats. 

And there’s always tonight…

Swansea v Liverpool. 8pm on Sky Sports. 

We can agree that Liverpool will win this one, right? The tipping point here is – will they concede. And I say no.

Yes, I know they have only registered two clean sheets on the road… yes, I know there have been goals at both ends in five of their last six… and yes, I know that Wilfried Bony looks like he has shed some of his Kardashian butt and the Swans have scored two matches in a row (no mean feat for that lot).

But I figure Jurgen the German will be thinking: The front four will win us the match, let’s see if the other six can get through it without fucking up. 

So let’s play it like this…

Tap In

  • Liverpool (-1) Match Handicap at 17/20

Long Shots

  • Liverpool to Win, Both Teams to Score: NO, Under 10.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points at 4/1 (via Coral’s #YourCall)

Note: Going over 10.5 corners and over 35.5 booking points (i.e. four cards) pushes the odds up to 11/1. Everything points under, but I wouldn’t dissuade you places a ‘saver’ bet to cover your stakes. After all, I’ve slashed everything else into the crowd this weekend… 
 

Matt Nesbitt

Coupon Busters - Game Week 24

Friday, January 19 2018

 

It’s a bumper edition this week. If, that is, a ‘bumper edition’ is still a thing in this modern age of ePads, the webnet and hi-fi stacks with slow release cassette decks. 

It just means there’s more bets than usual. You’re welcome.

Match Results

  1. Leicester to beat Watford
  2. Man City to beat Newcastle 
  3. Tottenham to beat Southampton
  4. Liverpool to beat Swansea                   £1 Four-fold returns £4.50
  5. Man United to beat Burnley        
  6. Chelsea to beat Brighton                      £0.5 Six-fold returns £5.75

Under 2.5 Goals

  1. Stoke v Huddersfield
  2. Brighton v Chelsea                              £1 Double returns £2.84
  3. Burnley v Man United                          £1 Treble returns £4.75

Both Teams to Score

  1. West Ham v Bournemouth
  2. Leicester v Watford                             £1 Double returns £3

Win To Nil

  1. Man City to beat Newcastle
  2. Liverpool to beat Swansea                  £1 Double returns £4
  3. Man United to beat Burnley                £0.5 Treble returns £4.70

Win By 1 Goal

  1. Chelsea to beat Brighton
  2. Arsenal to beat Palace
  3. Man United to beat Burnley
  4. Leicester to beat Watford                   £0.55 Yankee returns £65 (Any two returns £5)                 

*In this context a Yankee is not a morbidly obese gun-nut, eating a corndog - it is simply11 bets in one: six Doubles, four Trebles and a Four-fold. A 5p Yankee bet costs £0.55p – 11 x 5p bets = £0.55p.

Play your cards right and I might be back over the weekend with a Match Profile on one the TV matches. I’m mad, me. 

Matt Nesbitt

Premier League Preview - Game Week 24

Thursday, January 18 2018

 

VAR. Huh. What is it good for? Absolutely nothing, say it again.

Or over and over again, if you’re a BBC pundit. But never mind that shit, it’s tip time…

As per, the Tap Ins are short-price bankers best suited to Doubles, Trebles and Accas.

The Smart Money bets are for snaffling a bit of value out of the bookies. And in the absence of value, I’ve dropped in a few Long Shots that are worth a punt. 

Suggested stakes: 1pt per Smart Money, 0.5pts per Long Shot up to 3/1, 0.25pts 3/1+.   

The Scorecasts are for tackling things like Sky’s Super 6 £250k or Colossus’ £5k - £5 million jackpots     

And there’s £100 in free bets with Colossus is you sign up with this code: RAFMTS5UU4

Ready?

Saturday:
Brighton v Chelsea 12.30

Sniff, sniff… I smell a bit of betting value here. Watching Chelsea creep (and creak) past Norwich in the FA Cup in midweek will have done Brighton’s confidence no harm. A similarly neat and tidy team, with a solid home record – one defeat in 12 – and Liverpool and Man City are the only teams to leave with 3pts so far.
Chelsea are in that ballpark, but not the same league right now. Five draws on the spin tells us that. With their big hitters back they should just have enough, but only just.
Tap in: Priced out of it.
Smart Money: Chelsea & Under 2.5 Goals at 11/5 & Draw/ Chelsea at 3/1 are both value.
Scorecast: An ugly 0-1. 

Arsenal v Crystal Palace 
Arsenal have filled plenty of column inches this week, but none of it mentioned the five games without a win. Or two horribly soulless performances at Bournemouth and Forest. They’ve always picked their matches, to be fair and don’t like playing so I fancy them to maintain the third best home record in the PL. 
Palace (and Roy Hodgson)’s resurrection began by being hard to beat away from home and going toe to toe with their hosts could be their undoing here. But it’s a free hit. Their next three – West Ham, Newcastle & Everton – are bigger games in the narrative of their season.
Tap in: Home Win is too short at 1/2, even for an Acca.
Smart Money: Arsenal to win by 1 goal at 11/4 is value
Scorecast: An edgy 2-1.

Burnley v Man United
Burnley may have been the story of the season, but the last few chapters haven’t been great. No wins in six, four blanks in front of goal and two 90th minute point-dropping goals conceded tells me they are running – or have run – out of juice a bit. 
United look like they have been chugging along on the wrong kind of fuel all season, but the thought/ arrival of Alexi Sanchez might get a spark out of their laidback mavericks. Which should be enough to nick this. 
Tap in: Nothing tap-innable here. 
Smart Money: Man United by 1 goal at 9/4. 
Scorecast: The old Mourinho used to love a 0-2. This one seems happy with 0-1.

Everton v West Brom
The Big Sam effect wore off for Everton almost as quickly as it did for England. But it lingered long enough to find the comfortable mid-table obscurity that will probably lead to the same conclusion, but that’s 18- months or so away. Their perfect home record v teams below them (six from six) suggests they will end West Brom’s two-match winning streak. (And if you’re wondering if you can call two matches a ‘streak’, after 21 without a win Baggies fans are probably calling them the fucking ‘Invincibles’.)
It’s hard to see Albion taking more than a point. And it’s easy to see them leave with none. But you don’t read this for me to hedge, so I’ll grow a pair and do this…
Tap in: Everton Draw No Bet at 8/15.
Long Shot: 1-1 at 5/1.
Scorecast: Er, 1-1.
 
Leicester v Watford
Aside from an odd blip v Palace, Leicester have been pretty reliable at home – winning five of seven v teams outside the Top Four.  They generally punch their weight and with Mahrez getting his mojo back in the last month, they are probably as close to their title winning swagger as they are going to be.  Plus, they were robbed in the 1-2 Boxing Day defeat to Watford too.   
It has been a bearly season so far for the Hornets. They seem to have been a couple of minutes, or the width  of a post, or a red card away from a lot more points. But I can see the same again here.
Tap in: Home Win at 4/5 is fair.
Smart Money: Leicester & Both Teams to Score at 12/5.
Scorecast: Leicester to reverse the 2-1 on Boxing Day.  

Stoke v Huddersfield 
El Clasico it ain’t. The arrival of Paul Lambert might not have excited the Stoke fans, but it will stop them shipping the stupid amount of goals they have this season. Luckily for all concerned, Huddersfield rarely pack an away goal in their travel bags – just three times in 11 away trips in fact. But 4pts from their last three on the road will have their tails up – and thinking they can make it 5pts from four. Odder things have happened. And Stoke wouldn’t turn their nose up at a share of the spoils either.
Tap in: Under 2.5 Goals at 8/13.
Smart Money: Draw & Under 2.5 Goals at 11/4.
Scorecast: 0-0 written all over it.

West Ham v Bournemouth
Two teams on the up. Their ‘win, draw, win, draw’ records match perfectly over the last four games. Both teams played reserve teams in their midweek FA Cup ties, suggesting that they both fancy something here. And it has the look of goals, with BTTS paying out in West Ham’s last five and Bournemouth’s last four. And let’s not forget the Boxing Day slugfest that just wouldn’t quit (until the referee stepped in at 3-3. I’m struggling to see much different, but will go for a more cagey version.    
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 8/11.
Smart Money: Draw & Both Teams to Score at 17/5.
Long Shot: Draw & Over 2.5 Goals is value at 11/1.
Scorecast: I’ll take a 1-1.

Man City v Newcastle 5.30
Hmm, can Newcastle nick an away goal? That’s my quandary here. City will win, we know that – despite perhaps not looking quite as snappy as earlier in the season.  But winning matches is not the challenge, it’s managing the workload. 
Newcastle have picked up decent points in recent weeks but 1pt from a possible 30pts v Top Half teams tells you everything you need to know. And don’t be hoodwinked by the narrow 0-1 at the Etihad at Christmas. More than a third of City’s PL wins have been by a single goal margin. It’s enough to win any game and plenty in some. 
Tap in: Newcastle (+3) Handicap at 1/3.
Smart Money: Man City Win, Under 11.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points at 11/4 (Coral’s #YourCall)
Long Shot: Man City Win, Both Teams to Score; NO, Under 11.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points at 6/1 (Coral’s #YourCall).
Scorecast: A steady 3-0.

Sunday:
Southampton v Tottenham

Throwing away (potentially vital) Premier League points in the last few minutes of a match twice in a row, after a stoic draw at Old Trafford tells me Southampton’s players are bored. Perhaps disillusioned at the revolving exit door at the club. Perhaps frustrated they haven’t gone through it. Who knows. But the latch on the trap door below is looking less secure with every match without a win. Now ten and counting.
If they players are picking their matches they might fancy this one. But didn’t look that interested in the return fixture a couple of weeks ago. If Tottenham turn up in similar mood, this could get emotional.
Tap in: Tottenham at 8/13.
Smart Money: Tottenham & Under 3.5 Goals at 10/3.
Long Shot: Tottenham Win, Over 10.5 Corners & Over 35.5 Booking Points at 13/2 (Coral’s #YourCall).
Scorecast: Standard 0-2. 

Monday:
Swansea v Liverpool

It would be Liverpool-like for Klopp’s lot to piss all over their own shoes and drop points here, coming just a week after tweaking Man City’s ear. But not even Johnny Cochrane could make a case for Swansea. 
The ugly duckling won’t want another 0-5 hiding like at Anfield on Boxing Day, but I suspect this match has been written off now they’re in survival mode.
One stat that is niggling me is Liverpool’s habit of conceding on their travels. Just two away clean sheets from 11 on the road so far.  So I’m side-stepping it.
Tap In: Away Win but 3/10 is too short.
Long Shot: Liverpool Win, Both Teams to Score: NO, Under 10.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points at 4/1 (Coral’s #YourCall).
Scorecast: Threesy does it 0-3.

Make money, not VAR. 
 

Matt Nesbitt

What we learned about Arsenal this week

Wednesday, January 17 2018

 

A tough set of fixtures last weekend made for a break-even result – actually a minus 0.05pts, but who’s counting? – so nothing much to get excited about. 

But, as ever, there were pointers to help us going forward…

Arsenal are one of the PL’s most reliable teams…

No, really. So long as you apply some basic punting principles: At home v teams below them – Home Win (seven from seven so far); Everywhere else – oppose or avoid.

Their home record this season is only bettered by the Manchester pair. But their away record has them rubbing shoulders with Watford, Newcastle and West Ham. Their only success on the road has come at a lowest ebb Everton and via a last minute act of charity from the referee at Burnley. 

I have been guilty of thinking that this wonderfully gifted bunch of players – and they are – would pull it out of the bag, as has become their modus operandi in recent seasons. Most recently at Bournemouth. But no more. It’s time to face facts. So I would solemnly advise friends and family members that if they want a last look at the Arsenal they have known, visit in the next couple of weeks.

I’m no economics graduate (unlike Arsene) but I have been in a dressing room. And seeing your best (paid, respected and just best) players toy with the club and then head for a rival does NOT stiffen your resolve. You lose respect and get in line for the exit.

With five tasty looking teams scrapping for four Champion League places – all on the up, all with money to burn – this is the worst season ever to finish sixth. 

Checking out and cashing in at Arsenal…

The Gunners can also be relied upon to fire the best transfer news into the air these days too. A month ago it was all about Ozil, but it seems his summer deal is already neatly tucked in his top pocket. Leaving the stage clear for Dirty Sanchez and young Theo.

Walcott is still 17, right? Oh no, hang on… he’s closer to three-oh Walcott. He is what we used to call a ‘speedboat with no driver’. But the burden of being the new Thierry Henry was a big one, to be fair. The ‘new Steven Pienaar’ do you, Theo?

It’s not just Arsenal and Man City fans who are going to be gutted when the Sanchez saga is finally over. Members of Football Index have been creaming money off the daily back and forth, making proper profits on Sanchez’s stock.

(If I’m now talking gibberish, Football Index is a new-ish stock market for players. If you know your shit, you can turn it into daily cash. Have a look here…)

Upwards of £120,000 has changed hands in the last week. Okay, it’s only about a day’s work of Alexis but he doesn’t live in our world.

Speaking of which…

Dementia, Football and Alan…

What has Alan Shearer got against managers? 

When Mark Hughes left a few big hitters out of his Stoke team at Chelsea - targeting the more winnable home match against Newcastle two days later – Alan couldn’t wait to winch up the sword of Damocles and push Sparky into position…

‘He HAS to win against Newcastle’, deadpanned Shearer helpfully from his oh so comfy Match of the Day high-horse.

Of course, they didn't and that was that.

Ryan Giggs hadn’t been appointed a day in the Wales job and Alan was at it again…

‘Good luck trying to get your players together for friendlies…’  squealed Shearer to his mini-me Danny Dour (Murphy) referring to Giggs’ reluctance play in Welsh friendlies (en route to a 1,000+ match, 24-year career winning…erm… oh yeah, everyfuckingthing). 

[Note: I resisted including the clip as Shearer’s voice goes so high at the end he could be mistaken for Richard of Undateables fame - another half sympathetic, half laughable manchild that doesn’t know how to behave in public.]

Is it a problem with Welshmen? Or just ex-Man United players? 

Or perhaps it’s because he knows people at the FA are still laughing about his application to be England manager. Writing it is crayon didn’t help, Alan. But let’s remind ourselves of your managerial record…

Pld: 8   W:1*   D: 2   L: 5   Relegations: One    Anything else: Fuck all

(* v Middlesbrough, also relegated)

Back at it with a Premier League preview tomo.

Matt Nesbitt

TV Guide - Game Week 23: Man United v Stoke

Monday, January 15 2018

 

Hope you were on the 7/2 and 6/1 winners highlighted in Liverpool v Man City match. Not a bad watch too.

After 70-odd minutes of Bournemouth v Arsenal I was daring to dream about the 32/1 flagged up in Friday’s Coupon Busters. But Petr Cech clearly had his money elsewhere. 

Probably for the best – I’d have never shut up about it. And probably woken up in a bin this morning. 

But there’s always tonight…

Man United v Stoke. 8pm on Sky Sports. 

On paper, this isn’t a difficult puzzle to solve: The Premier League’s second best home team + the worst away team = home win. All day. 

The challenge is dredging a bit of betting value out of the match... 

The appointment of a Paul Lambert might get a bit of a bounce from Stoke. Either from players keen to impress their new boss, or from those thinking they might prefer to a new boss elsewhere. It happens.

Plus, Stoke can play free from the pressure of trying to win the match. Their next six will define their season, not this one.  

The potential/ possible arrival of Alexis Sanchez might also get a response from one or two of United’s front players. And with Arsenal and Chelsea dropping points at the weekend, Jose can make ground in the race for second place. No room for a third home draw here.

So let’s play it like this…

Tap In

  • Man United to Win To Nil at 10/11

It makes my sphincter pucker to go below Evens for a Win To Nil bet, but you’re not gonna thank me for telling you to back a Home Win at 2/9, are you? Personally, I’m swerving in this for the following…

Smart Bets

  • Draw/ Man United in the HT/FT at 14/5

United have been level at the break in their last six matches (all comps). So there might be a bit of value in backing a hardworking Stoke keeping United’s workmanlike attack out for an hour or so.

  • Man United & Under 3.5 Goals at 6/4  

This covers the 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 and 2-1. United haven’t hit three or more for ten matches, so we should be good.  

Long Shots

  • Man United to Win, Both Teams to Score: NO, Under 11.5 Corners & Over 35.5 Booking Points at 7/1 (via Coral’s #YourCall)

To add a bit of spice, lets reinvest a bit of our Liverpool v Man City winnings on this four-way. I’m happy with United winning to Nil with a measure of control that will bring it in under 11.5 Corners. And I’m going over 35.5 Booking Points (i.e. four Yellow Cards) based on one or two Stoke players playing to the crowd/ new manager. Worth a silly fiver. 

I’ll pick up the pieces tomo with a review of the weekend. 

Matt Nesbitt

Coupon Busters - Game Week 23

Friday, January 12 2018

 

I’ll level with you - it’s an ugly old coupon for us to get back to Premier League punting with. 

We’re not going to clear much of the Christmas credit card bill this week. But Badmen can’t be choosers. 

Match Results

Newcastle to beat Swansea
Man United to beat Stoke                          £1 Double returns £2.38
Chelsea to beat Leicester
Tottenham to beat Everton                         £1 Four-fold returns £4

Under 2.5 Goals

Palace v Burnley
Newcastle v Swansea
West Brom v Brighton                                 £1 Treble returns £3.75    

Draws

Palace v Burnley
Huddersfield v West Ham
West Brom v Brighton
Liverpool v Man City                                    £1.10 Yankee* returns £29 
                                                                     (Any two covers stakes)

*In this context a Yankee is not a morbidly obese racist, drinking a cawfee and telling a Yellow Cab that he’s ‘walking here!’ It is 11 bets in one – six Doubles, four Trebles and a Four-fold. A 10p Yankee bet costs £1.10 – 10 x 11 bets = £1.10.

To brighten up weekend wagers, I’m going to have a punt on the Half-time/ Full-time market. It’s a tricky one to land, so bet with money that jingles rather than folds. But it will add a bit of spice to Super Sunday…

Draw/ Arsenal
Draw/ Liverpool                                           £1 Double returns £32

I’ll be picking the bones out on Monday, plus having a squiz at the Man United v Stoke match.

Join me. 

Matt Nesbitt

Premier League Preview - Game Week 23

Thursday, January 11 2018

 

It’s back to Premier League business this weekend after those FA Cup shenanigans. Some gnat’s chuff pricing from the bookies means we only cleared 1.65pts from the six matches covered, despite a couple of clean sweeps. Eyes roll.

Still, I’ve squeegeed my third eye and focussed it fairly and squarely on this weekend’s coupon. And this is what it saw…

As per, the Tap Ins are short-price bankers best used in Doubles, Trebles and Accas.

The Smart Money bets are for pick-pocketing a bit of value out of the bookies. And there are a few Long Shots in there that are worth a punt. 

Suggested stakes: 1pt per Smart Money, 0.5pts per Long Shot up to 3/1, 0.25pts 3/1+.   

The Scorecasts are for tackling things like Sky’s Super 6 £250k or Colossus’ £5k - £5 million jackpots        

And there’s £100 in free bets with Colossus is you sign up with this code: RAFMTS5UU4

Gertcha. 

Saturday:
Chelsea v Leicester

Coming sandwiched between EFL and FA Cup ties might add to the selection headaches, but it should be a straightforward enough home win. Chelsea are 100% at home to teams outside the Top Seven, conceding in just two of seven matches. Leicester are pointless in four visits to Top Half teams and have taken just 4pts from 32 v Top Six.
Tap in: Home Win but 2/7 is a no no.
Smart Money: Chelsea Win & Both Teams to Score is better at 19/10.
Scorecast: A repeat of the 2-1 at the King Power. 

Crystal Palace v Burnley
After five without a win in the Premier League, Burnley’s 100% white team lead by a ginger (not my words, L’Equipe magazine, fact) can’t afford to leave Palace empty handed. But Roy’s Boys have become accustomed to picking up points themselves. A creditable 17 from 10 games. And won’t roll over to those last century throwbacks with flat noses and big ears (yep, L’Equipe again).
Tap in: Burnley Draw No Bet at 13/8. 
Smart Money: Draw & Under 2.5 Goals isn’t bad value at 13/5.
Scorecast: A 1-1 would satisfy both camps.

Huddersfield Town v West Ham
Similarly, neither of these will be happy with anything less than a point here. But I’m not sure either team has got the juice to force three. This dilemma has been reflected in both teams’ recent results – six draws from nine between them. Wouldn’t back against another here.
Tap in: Nothing tap-innable here. 
Long Shot: Draw & Both Teams to Score looks the value at 7/2.
Scorecast: A slightly nervy 1-1.

Newcastle United v Swansea City
This match could be a defining one for both teams. A good cup win, four Premier League points and gutsy showing against Man City suggests a bit of momentum gathering for Newcastle. A win here will confirm it. Likewise, if Swansea lose here the stirring late revival at Watford can probably be put down to luck.  
Tap in: Home Win at Evens.
Smart Money: Newcastle Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 7/5. 
Long Shot: 1-0 and 2-0 Correct Scores at 5/1 and 7/1 (55:45 stakes).
Scorecast: I’ll go 2-0.
 
Watford v Southampton
Watford don’t seem to have won for months, but are still mid-table. But then you could say something about Southampton’s last five years. Just one away win all season – at a lowest-ebb Crystal Palace – should give Watford the chance to get a grip on their campaign again, but this isn’t one to put the farm on Badmen, so we’ll play the value.
Tap in: Watford or Draw at 4/11.
Long Shot: Watford Win & Both Teams to Score is value at 15/4.
Scorecast: Watford to edge it 2-1. I think.  

West Brom v Brighton
This has the look of another pivotal match for both parties. West Brom will see it as the best chance of a PL win since Palace at home (December 2nd) and until Southampton at home (Feb 3rd). That coming after three ugly looking away trips to Everton, Liverpool (FA Cup) and Man City. BUT…  Brighton will also see the chance to improve on their travel sickness – they’re five without a goal on the road.
Tap in: Under 2.5 Goals looks a gimme at 4/9.
Smart Money: The Draw & Under 2.5 Goals is worthy of the 9/4 offered.
Scorecast: Got a sneaky for Albion to pinch it – 1-0.

Tottenham v Everton
After a wobbly November, Tottenham had a good Christmas and look back ‘at it’. They have been very efficient against teams outside the Top Eight, with ten wins from 14 matches. In contract, Everton have gone flat after their initial Big Sam bounce. No wins in five – and just six shots on target (no, really!) – suggests Tottenham at a canter.  
Tap in: Tottenham at a canter, but 1/4 is too short.
Smart Money: Tottenham Win & Under 3.5 Goals at Evens.
Scorecast: A comfortable 2-0.

Sunday:
Bournemouth v Arsenal

Bournemouth seem to have come through the cruel run of December fixtures – United, City and Liverpool in the PL and Chelsea in the EFL Cup – relatively unscathed. No wins, but five points from the three matches since is as good a spell as they’ve managed all season. Still no points and just two goals from eight v Top Seven teams though. Although the visit of Arsenal isn’t daunting. Just three away wins has the Gunners punching around Leicester, Watford and Newcastle’s weight on the road. Can’t see them beaten though.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 8/15.
Smart Money: Mmm, I’m split between Arsenal Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 12/5 and the Draw & BTTS at 4/1 (60:40). 
Scorecast: Mmm, likewise 2-2/1-2, 2-2/ 1-2... 1-2.

Liverpool v Man City
Right then, who’s up for a little sport? I reckon Liverpool are one of the teams with the tools to beat City. And they’re in good fettle just now. With Dick Van Dyke on board their front four (five, or even six) will be happy to pour all over City and we know there are cracks, so expect a bit of seepage. Yes, yes, yes, City are well capable of scoring and winning at Anfield, but the value is with Liverpool. So let’s do it. 
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 4/9.
Smart Money: Liverpool Win & Both Teams to Score is value at 7/2.
Long Shot: The Draw/ Liverpool in the HT/ FT even more so at 6/1.
Scorecast: They both like a 2-1.

Monday:
Man United v Stoke City

Should be a bit of a free hit for United. Missing a manager for any length of time during January is bound to have agents circling like buzzards above Stoke’s dazed and confused players. A trip to Old Trafford doesn’t inspire the chills (or thrills) that is once did, but only City have been better at home so far - just three teams have scored there this season. And they owe Stoke for the dropped away points in September. 
Tap In: Home Win but 1/5 is,  like, waaay short. 
Smart Money: Man United Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 11/10. 
Scorecast: How about a 3-0.

Hows about that then?

Matt Nesbitt

FA Cup 3rd Round

Friday, January 5 2018

 

Quick update on my Christmas assessment…

That Arsenal and Chelsea lot did us a solid the other night, a-scoring and a-drawing at the Emirates. Adding 4/5 and a 16/5 winners into the pot. 

I had scored our four Christmas match days v the bookies as a win, a loss and two draws. But this counts as an injury time winner, so get ready for dressing room selfie. Shirts off, bellies in and say ‘win bonus’.  

Right, to FA Cup biznizz... I’ve picked six of the best, including the all-Premier League ties and a couple of Championship teams I happen to cover on duty for the bookies (don’t judge me – I’ve got an expensive wife-style to maintain). 

As per, the Tap Ins are short-price bankers best used in Doubles, Trebles and Accas.

The Smart Money bets are for pick-pocketing a bit of value out of the bookies. And there are a few Long Shots in there that are worth a punt. 

Suggested stakes: 1pt per Smart Money, 0.5pts per Long Shot up to 3/1, 0.25pts 3/1+.   

Friday:
Liverpool v Everton

If Everton’s unlikely draw – secured from their only shot of the match – at Liverpool a month ago tore up the formbook. Friday’s cup clash should Sellotape it back together again. Liverpool have scored 16 goals in the six matches since (including one blank) and won’t be anything like so wasteful this time.
The Big Sam effect has worn of in stages since assuming the throne at Goodison. Two wins were followed by two draws, which have given way to two defeats. But they are back in mid-table and that’s where their ambitions lay, not in the FA Cup. Liverpool, on the other hand will fancy their chances.
Tap in: Home Win but 2/5 is too short. 
Smart Money: Liverpool To Nil is better at 11/8. 
Scorecast: No mistakes – 2-0.

Man United v Derby County
With the big one (the Premier League) out of sight, the even bigger one (the Champions League) light years away, the Special One (Mourinho) might fancy the FA one this season. It would certainly help paper over a few cracks (just ask Arsene), just like the acquisition of the EFL and Europa Leagues did last term. It would also be one to add to the set for Jose and Zlatan.
Derby are going well in the Championship but this is likely to be as much a short-swapping exercise as anything. They have got smaller, but more catchable fish to fry. 
Tap in: Man United, but not at 1/4.
Long Shot: Draw/ Man United in the HT/FT at 27/10.
Scorecast: A late flurry 2-0.

Saturday:
Middlesbrough v Sunderland

Here’s a few things you might not know about Middlesbrough: It’s an industrial town on the River Tees and it’s a shithole. Only joking, of course - everybody knows it’s a shithole…
Currently 8th in the Championship Boro have been decent against teams outside the Top Six (W7 D2 L1) and beat Sunderland 1-0 in November. Six of their seven home wins have been To Nil. 
In the interests of balance, I should state that although Sunderland is bigger (it’s a city) it is every bit as shit as Middlesbrough, every day of the week. Except Saturdays. When it’s often worse. Three wins in the last eight matches is something of a revival in a dogs’ egg of a season which sees them bottom of the table. 
Tap in: Home Win at 3/4 – but I’d be more inclined to go…
Smart Money: Middlesbrough & Under 3.5 Goals at 6/5. Or even to cover both…
Long Shot: 1-0 and 2-0 Correct Scores at 5/1 and 7/1 (55:45 stakes for even coverage). 
Scorecast: I’ll go 2-0.

Man City v Burnley
Hmm, this might depend just how much Pep fancies the Quadruple. And I suspect he will. Which is a shame because Burnley might’ve been eyeing a cup run in their so far excellent season. Although – whisper it – but they had a stinker over Christmas. 
Three points from five matches, with just three goals scored is by far their worst form of the campaign. Of course, it’s all ‘look how far we’ve come’ and ‘this time last year’ from Sean Dyche – and quite right too. But if the margins of your success are small – six 1-0 wins so far, just saying – your collective arses are never far from reality’s snapping jaws. 
But, saying all that City can concede – just one clean sheet in six at home. And Burnley compete well. 
Tap in: Burnley (+3) Match Handicap at 4/7.
Smart Money: Man City & Under 3.5 Goals at 5/4.  
Long Shot: Draw/ Man City in the HT/ FT at 29/10.
Scorecast: City to find a way – 2-1.
 
Watford v Bristol City
Up until the end of November, Watford were the story of the Premier League season. Since then seven defeats from nine has introduced a nasty twist in the middle. But I think they’ve been a bit unlucky. A mixture of bad luck (v Tottenham, Palace and Swansea), a couple of unwinnable matches (v United and City) and a shitload of red cards (v Burnley, Palace and Huddersfield) has dealt them a raw deal.
Bristol City, however, will fancy their chances. Now they ARE the story of the Championship. A squad put together for a combined £65… favourites for relegation a year ago… a handicapped child for a goalkeeper… blah, blah, blah. Their efforts this season have been remarkable. Only leaders Wolves have been better on the road and seeing to Man United in the EFL won’t exactly deflate their big balls. 
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 4/5.
Smart Money: Watford & Both Teams to Score pays 2/1 – four times the Home Win.
Scorecast: Goalfest 4-2.

Monday:
Brighton v Crystal Palace

Someone on Five Live called this a derby the other day?! It’s 46 miles, for badness sake. That’s no more a derby than… I dunno… Stoke and Man City (43 miles).  But it is on TV. So…
Brighton are one of the most consistent teams in the Premier League. They pretty much punch their weight – W3 D2 v Bottom Five, L5 v Top Five and W2 D6 L4 v the rest. Palace’s form over the last ten matches – W4 D5 L1 – puts them smack in the middle of that and have added away wins to their armoury in two of the last three. Both have got more pressing business in the league but I fancy a little light relief of FA Cup magic might make this a bit of a thriller.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at Evens.
Smart Money: Draw at 17/5 could well land. 
Long Shot: Draw & Over 2.5 Goals is worth a punt at 14/1. 
Scorecast: Can see a desmond here – 2-2

Here’s to a sweet FA Cup weekend.

Matt Nesbitt

What we learned over Christmas

Wednesday, January 3 2018

 

Where do we start...?

Well, gin and Baileys doesn’t mix… Police horses are bigger than you think… It was Jesus born on Christmas Day, not Elvis…  Victoria’s Secret… (They’re vests and pants).

And at the halfway point of the season, we’re on track.

Punting is for life not just Christmas…

For all the talk of the crippling festive fixture pile-up – including from our own Ben Dinnery on the BBC, but I’ll get onto that in a moment. We emerged the side other of four match days in decent fettle.

Game Week 19 (pre-Christmas) and Game Week 22 (the New Year matches) broke even. The two in-between hit the heights of a 21pts profit and a barrel-scraping 9pts loss. So we’ll call that two draws, a win and a defeat. Same as Palace. 

Could’ve been better, of course. One less goal here (or, even better – Burnley)… a couple of Cards there… (or, to be specific Leicester and Everton)… and we’re bundling 4/1, 9/2 and 13/2 winners into the Collect column.  

But we’ll take it. The second half of the season is always more punter-friendly. The table has taken shape, agendas have developed and battles are chosen more carefully. Plus, there's half a season of form in the book so the sailing will get more plain from here on in.

Ben on the Beeb…

Normally the thought of waking up to the lilting Geordie tones of Ben Dinnery brings me out in a cold sweat – four years on the bottom bunk of that Mexican jail cell has left its mark… 

But when it comes via the radio on BBC Five Live, it is a thing of beauty.

Being the MAN when it comes to football injuries, the Big Dinn made more sense in five minutes on Wednesday morning than those clowns Savage, Hartson, Neville and Shearer have in the last five years. 

It’s only a matter of time until the world catches on that injury knowledge is a key tool to cashing at the bookies and elsewhere…

Taking stock…

We hear from plenty of tuned-in cookies who are trading on Ben’s injury insight on Football Index.

It’s a kind of stock market for footballers, where you can buy and sell players at fluctuating prices – based on their performances on the pitch and in the media. It’s good. Very smart. 

And lucrative too. The sharpest Fantasy Football-types have been turning over four-figure profits all season – which, between you and me, is two-figures more than I’ve made most weeks.

But I’m hooked. Especially now the Transfer Window is open. It's party time.

Have a look here. You just might love it. 

But when the fun stops… keep going. Yeah?

I’ll be back on your screens on Friday with a look at a selection of sweet FA Cup ties. 

Matt Nesbitt


 

 

Who the hell is Matt Nesbitt?

Punter. Tipster. Collector. Of winnings.

Meet the good boy behind Badman Betting...

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

The planned football career that would allow Matt to spend every afternoon in the bookies was cut mercifully short. So he was able to spend his mornings there too.

But rather than spunk his (sweet) FA pension on a day-tripper to Palookaville, Matt played smart. He watched, he listened. Learned his trade and earned a reputation.

But the bookies don’t like a winner...

First they closed his accounts. Then they tried legal action to shut down his tipping services. Now they employ him.

Matt has been providing winning football advice since 1998. And whether it has been via post, premium rate phone line, email, TV or Twitter – he has always made punters money.

Sign-up today for Matt’s weekly betting advice.

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