Coupon Busters - FA Cup 5th Rnd

Friday, February 16 2018


FA Cup week means a week of… ahem… warm weather training* in Spain for plenty of the Premier League.

(*And if you think these camps are just an excuse for drinking, golf and off-the-record contract/ bonus negotiations, you’re bang wrong. Not many play golf these days.)

From a punting point of view it hasn’t left us much to get our grubby mitts on. Six of the eight Fifth Round ties span the divisions and even Huddersfield V Man United fits the giant killing bill. 

The bookies have got it wrapped pretty tight, so we’re going to get any value without going out on a limb. But this is where my paper round money will be going this weekend…

Banker

Swansea to beat Sheffield Wednesday at 5/4 – Wednesday are only this 16th best team in the Championship at home. (FA Cup aside) they’ve only won two of the last 16 and have no bidness being the Sixth Round. The Swans meanwhile are fairly flying. This will be ten unbeaten. Get on.   

Long Shot

And it is a long shot, so don’t put the kids on it. But you’ll get a smidgeon better than 10/1 backing all the giants to avoid a killing this weekend. Plus, if it still alive come Monday night it will add a bit of spice to the Wigan v Man City match.

  1. Leicester City to beat Sheffield United
  2. Chelsea to beat Hull City
  3. Swansea City to beat Sheffield Wednesday
  4. Brighton to beat Coventry City
  5. Man United to beat Huddersfield Town
  6. Tottenham to beat Rochdale
  7. Man City to beat Wigan 


TV Treble

You might not know this, but in various bets on these pages I have recommended Chelsea to keep a clean sheet three times. And three times have got it wrong (yes Watford, Newcastle and Huddersfield. I’m looking at you…). 

But eight out of nine wins To Nil v the bottom seven in the PL is urging me to go in again v Hull. Who are the third worst away scorers in the Championship. I’m adding Tottenham and Man United - who will have had a week of Jose drills after a couple of shockers recently - in a TV Treble that pays 15/2.   

  1. Chelsea Win to Nil
  2. Tottenham Win to Nil
  3. Man United Win to Nil

Have a Bad one,

Matt Nesbitt

What we learned from Game Week 27

Tuesday, February 13 2018

 

That Matt Nesbitt, he’s just like Man United/ Arsenal/ Bournemouth [choose one] and to a lesser extent Everton/ Burnley/ Watford (choose another].

You just start thinking you can rely on him and he pulls a Phil Jones on you…

It was a bad weekend, Badmen. With a few bad calls and a bit of bad luck. 

I’ll take responsibility for swerving the Tottenham and Liverpool Wins, in favour of the better value Both Teams to Score picks. Greedy. A Chinese burn has been administered. 

But I stand by West Brom to score at Chelsea (they should’ve). And our cause wasn’t helped by Sturridge’s brittle hamstring pinging moments into the match. 

And I’d back the same Bournemouth and Man United bets if they played the same match again tomorrow. 

But instead we’ve got a much more glamourous midweek to tackle, which I’ll get onto in a minute…

You’re looking smart…

Of course, you might’ve collected this weekend. And I sincerely hope you did. 

Because every Badman bets differently. You might just follow Tap-ins, or Smart Bets, or not get out of bed for less than a Long Shot. You might pick and choose.

Last week everyone was snorting their Sherbert Dib-Dabs off the bookies tits. The two previous weeks it was the Tap-in merchants who were hosing rentable ladies in Babycham.   

But overall it is the Smart Bettors who have had the most cake rubbed in their backs. We’re 5pts in front since we tweaked the format, so if you’re wavering on which category fits best – it’s the Smart move.

And here’s another…

An Old Lady that is worth a punt…

Tottenham tackle Juventus tonight in the Champions League. And while – quite rightly – all the talk is about Harry Kane; how great he is, how many zillion pounds he is worth and how he is DEFINITELY going to win the World Cup for England… (well, perhaps not yet. But you wait until the summer).

There are a couple of things that you might not – and definitely should – be aware of about Tottenham’s opponents, Juventus.

NOTE: I am writing this ahead of the first leg, so putting it out there – like a Huddersfield substitute. But whatever happens in Turin, I think this is valid. Where was I? Oh yeah…

Juventus and Napoli are pissing Serie A. Juve are currently playing second fiddle, a point off the top but 14pts ahead of third place. Which is relative, I know. But get this…

Juventus have conceded…ahem… once in their last 15 matches. Once. In 15

They’ve also won their last ten and only tasted defeat once in 22 (18 D3 L1). And let’s not forget they have reached two of the last three finals, losing to Real Madrid last season (who weren’t bad) and Barcelona in 2015 (also reasonable). 

However, Juventus are currently trading at 16/1 to win the Champions League. And that, Badmen, is value. 

It’s three times the price of Barca and Bayern (5/1), but I’d call it closer to Even Money if they were going head-to-head with either team over two legs. They’ve got more pedigree than Man City (too short at 10/3) and PSG (also 5/1), who look capable of taking care of Real (8s).  

Still not feeling it? Okay, one last point…

Juventus are currently priced the same as Liverpool and Man United to lift the trophy. Worth a punt in my view.  

Ciao for now.

Matt Nesbitt

UPDATE: Wednesday 14th...

Thought I'd take a welcome break from opening Valentine's cards to update on Juventus v Spurs.

Juve's price went down to single figures on Betfair at 2-0 up. But is now as big as 28/1 in places. If they can get past Tottenham, I'd still fancy them to go to the last four - and then you'd have a very tradable price. 

 


 

Coupon Busters - Game Week 27

Friday, February 9 2018

 

Oi oi, Badmen. I found nearly a five in loose change down the back of the settee while I was doing the housework, so I thought I’d try to turn it into £50.

Here’s how…

Match Results

  1. Tottenham Win & BTTS
  2. Liverpool Win & BTTS            £1 Double returns £10.50

Both Teams to Score

  1. Tottenham v Arsenal
  2. West Ham v Watford             £1 Double returns £2.50
  3. Everton v Palace                   £1 Treble returns £5
  4. Southampton v Liverpool       £1 Four-fold returns £8

Draws

  1. Everton v Palace
  2. Stoke v Brighton
  3. Swansea v Burnley
  4. West Ham v Watford            £1.10p Yankee returns £26.85 (any 2 pays £4.50).


*In this context a Yankee is not a racist, pussy-grabbing con man with a Stars and Stripes on his lapel and an unruly shrub of Cheetos Shredded Wheat on his head. It is 11 bets in one – six Doubles, four Trebles and a Four-fold. A 10p Yankee bet costs £1.10p – 11 x 10p bets = £1.10p.

Cha cha chang chang,

Matt Nesbitt

Who the hell is Matt Nesbitt?

Punter. Tipster. Collector. Of winnings.

Meet the good boy behind Badman Betting...

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

The planned football career that would allow Matt to spend every afternoon in the bookies was cut mercifully short. So he was able to spend his mornings there too.

But rather than spunk his (sweet) FA pension on a day-tripper to Palookaville, Matt played smart. He watched, he listened. Learned his trade and earned a reputation.

But the bookies don’t like a winner...

First they closed his accounts. Then they tried legal action to shut down his tipping services. Now they employ him.

Matt has been providing winning football advice since 1998. And whether it has been via post, premium rate phone line, email, TV or Twitter – he has always made punters money.

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