Coupon Busters - Game Week 35Friday, April 20 2018
There's a Matt Nesbitt vibe in the area. Lock up your doubters...
Sunny as fuck outside. Get yourself in a dark, dank bookies with these puppies…
Banker of the Week
- Palace (+1) Handicap v Watford
- Arsenal to beat West Ham
- Man City Half-time/ Full-time
- Chelsea to beat Southampton
Four ‘soft’ bankers this weekend which add up to a tidy 4/1 payout. Which is preferable to trying to pick out the strongest three for a smidgeon over 2/1.
Place it with Coral and you get a 10% Bonus on all winning accas of four of more...
Chelsea’s season depends on the FA Cup and if they are anything like, they should have way too much for Saints. Arsenal are formidable at home and have a Europa League semi-final to sharpen up for. Seeing off Swansea by half-time should be nothing more than a cakewalk for the new Champs and I fancy Palace can get at least a draw at Watford.
So there you have it. Get on.
Bet: Fourfold at 4/1 (5.0)
Value of the Week
Pfft! Slim pickings this weekend…
But form and agenda lead me to thinking ‘Draw’ in Watford v Palace, Stoke v Burnley and Everton v Newcastle.
Neither Watford, Palace, Everton or Newcastle would turn their nose up at a point. And I’m not sure Stoke have quite got enough to get the better of a Burnley side who will be stung by their midweek defeat.
But Draws are dicey customers, so we’ll build in a bit of insurance with a Trixie.
- Bet: Draw Trixie - Watford v Palace, Stoke v Burnley & Everton v Newcastle
Note: A Trixie is four bets (three doubles and a treble). So, for example, a £1 stake will cost £4 and pay a maximum return of £61.78 if they all come in. Any two pays £10.23.
And if you’re feeling fruity, you could crank it up the gigawatts and place the same bet adding Both Teams to Score.
- Bet: Draw & BTTS Trixie - Watford v Palace, Stoke v Burnley & Everton v Newcastle
A £1 stake will again cost £4 but pay a maximum return of £144.56 if they all come in. Any two pays £19.12.
Watch and earn with these three this weekend…
- Man United v Tottenham – First Half Draw
- Man City Half-time/ Full-time v Swansea
- Everton v Newcastle – First Half Draw
I’m doing things by half this weekend. You knowz I got jokez.
- Bet: Treble at 5/1+ (6.0)
Collect your money.
Premier League Preview - Game Week 35Thursday, April 19 2018
Sherrif Matt Nesbitt is riding into town again to sort the good from the bad and the ugly in this weekend's coupon...
A short, but still sharp offering this week. Eight matches between Thursday and Monday to pick the low hanging fruit from.
The Tap Ins are included regardless of price, so I’d reserve them for topping up Accas at best. Or even bypass them totally.
The Smart Money bets are the best way of dredging a bit of value out of the bookies. And any Long Shots are decent priced punts that have some statistical merit.
Feeling hot hot hot!
7.45pm Burnley v Chelsea
When Burnley opened the season by beating Chelsea not many would’ve predicted there would be just two places and 8pts between them at this stage of the season. And after tonight it could be one place and 5pts. Burnley are five from five in the PL and Chelsea just one from four on the road, making a mockery of the bookies pricing – 7/2 Home Win, 10/11 Away.
It should be said that four of Burnley’s winning streak have been by a single goal margin – as have 12 of their 14 wins this season – and the five matches v the Top Six so far have yielded just a single point. But I’m going with the value:
Scorecast: 1-1 at 11/2.
Tap In: Burnley (+2) Handicap at 2/7.
Smart Money: Burnley Double Chance at 20/23.
Long Shot: Burnley Win & BTTS at 15/2.
7.45pm Leicester City v Southampton
Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory to Chelsea at the weekend will have been a body blow to the Saints. They have the chance to put it right of course, at Wembley on Sunday. But that is another reason I can’t see anything for them here. Oh, and here’s a third – 2pts from a possible 24pts away to Top Half teams so far.
There are signs that Leicester’s season has slowed to a jog, but they have been efficient v the Bottom Half. Just the two defeats from 17 (W7 D8), although they have drawn at home against the other three Bottom Four teams.
Scorecast: 2-0 at 11/1.
Tap In: Leicester Win at 5/4.
Smart Money: Leicester Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 21/10.
12.30pm West Brom v Liverpool
Now then, what do we have here? West Brom will be buzzing off their win at Man United and Liverpool twitching at the prospect of their Champions League semi-final on Tuesday. Plus, Albion have won and drawn at Anfield already this season. So this has all the ingredients for an upset, right?
Probably not. Although the Baggies look a different animal under Darren Moore, Klopp has gone strong and gone home with the points in most pre-CL matches so far. There might be a tweak here and there, but they should be a goal better than Albion’s best efforts. Even with the brakes on.
Scorecast: 1-2 at 7/1.
Tap In: Liverpool to win at 8/15.
Smart Money: Liverpool Win to Nil at 7/4.
3pm Watford v Crystal Palace
Only 3pts separates the two teams, but Watford are north of that 35pt marker – the ‘magic’ 40pts for survival is so last year, dahling - so in less of a flap than they might otherwise be after taking just a single point from their last five.
Beating Brighton last week just about edged Palace out of the shadow cast by relegation, but need another win before they dare put their Premier League towels on their sun beds again. If it doesn’t come here, they will fancy there are points to be had v Leicester, Stoke and West Brom before the end of the season.
Scorecast: 1-1 at 11/2.
Tap In: Palace (+1) Handicap at 4/9.
Smart Money: Draw & BTTS at 13/4.
1.30pm Arsenal v West Ham
Arsenal will be hoping that West Ham will think their 5pt haul from their last three will be enough to preserve their PL status. Or at least be targeting the required points from their three remaining home matches.
It’s not that Arsenal haven’t be good at home this season, because they have. Very good, in fact. Better than Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea and just a goal shy of matching Man United’s numbers. But you get the feeling it’s all about the Europa League now – and Atletico are in town on Thursday.
Burnley’s run of five wins has taken them to within 2pts in the PL and Arsene will be keenly aware of Dyche Dyche Baby’s breath on his neck (which I imagine is hot and smalls like a lit match). So I’ll take Arsenal to do enough here.
Scorecast: 3-1 at 10/1.
Tap In: Arsenal Win at 8/15.
Smart Money: Arsenal Win & BTTS at 9/5.
1.30pm Stoke City v Burnley
Paul Lambert stresses that he can’t fault the effort of his players, but has stopped short of praising them. Because he must know that shabby points spilled at home to Watford, Brighton and away to Southampton and West Ham has cost him the chance to perform a rescue mission. And a reputation for that means a job for life in the Premier League.
Burnley have won their last three on the road, which has taken them to the brink of the Europa League (fans all over Europe must be rubbing their hands at the prospect of a tapping ‘Turf Moor’ into their SatNavs…). Can’t see Sean leaving empty handed here.
Scorecast: 1-1 at 5/1.
Tap In: Double Chance – Burnley or Draw at 6/10.
Smart Money: Draw & BTTS at 7/2.
Long Shot: Burnley Win 2-1 at 11/1.
4.30pm Man City v Swansea
Taking the field as Champions will no doubt give Man City a sense of pride, freedom and they want to put on a show. Which is bad news for Swansea. And here’s some more…
City have only dropped 4pts at home all season. And three of those were to Man United, who could’ve been four or five down at half-time. The other was to Everton in GW 2.
On a positive tip for the visitors, they will be able to swap shirts with the Champions. Oh and finish the season with home matches to two all but condemned teams, Stoke and Southampton. Both of whom are likely to be out of reach of Swansea’s 33pts total by then.
Scorecast: 4-0 at 7/1.
Tap In: Half-time/ Full-time – Man City/ Man City at 8/15.
Long Shot: Man City Win & Under 2.5 Goals at 27/10.
8pm Everton v Newcastle United
The season can’t be over quick enough for Everton fans. The false hope of a fortune spent on new talent, the returning Rooney and blossoming academy has long been replaced with Big Sam, boredom and bitter fans at the ballot box. And Liverpool could yet win the Champions League. You’ve got to feel for the Toffees.
Not being beaten by their city rivals is likely to be the highpoint, but they do have the chance to beat a Top Half team – for just the second time – on Monday night.
Newcastle arrive in fine fettle, winning their last four and anything here will see them leapfrog their hosts.
Scorecast: 1-1 at 5/1.
Tap In: First-half Results – Draw at Evens.
Smart Money: Draw & BTTS at 7/2.
I’ll be back around high noon Friday with some Coupon Busters based on the six weekend fixtures.
What we learned from Game Week 34Tuesday, April 17 2018
Bit of a Curate’s Egg this weekend. (Note: A teacher at school – Miss Norman – said that about me once and I only learned what it actually meant this week. #rebel).
Some good bits, some bad bits.
On the face of it, 35pts profit is a tidy weekend’s business. But a minus from both Tap In and Smart Bets categories is neither big nor clever – one from seven Smart Bets is shite, in fact.
Nailing 15pts from Long Shots over the last two weekends is a good sign though.
5 out of 8
1 out of 7
2 out of 3
3 out of 10
Huddersfield’s last minute winner probably made it a good night down the high street, but robbed us of 8pts of profit. So Tom Ince is this week’s rotter.
Things were looking rosy in the Monday night match too, until that lanky get Peter Crouch scored for Stoke. Luckily that lanky get Andy Carroll got us a bit back.
Burnley were once again stars of the show, delivering a second Scorecast in the last three weeks. So Dyche Dyche baby is our hero.
Here’s what else we learned at the weekend…
Some things are all too predictable…
Not sure if you saw the social media posts last Friday morning - circa 9am - which showed from Champions League semi-finalist Roma’s website advertising tickets for their first leg away at Liverpool.
Nothing exceptional about that, I hear you say. Except the draw didn’t take place until 12 noon.
Could’ve been a coincidence, of course. Filler copy on a test page. Wrong type of leaves on the line. A puff of smoke from behind the picket fence…
You might also have noticed that Mo Salah’s odds have shrunk from around 2/1 to 1/3 since the guys at the FA have had their bet, er, I mean… concluded the voting procedure.
You can’t go around making wild accusations without basis…
So, I’ll tell you a little true story…
A few years ago I was running a tipping service with a guy who worked under the moniker ‘Mr X’. He was an ex-odds Ladbrokes compiler, NFL handicapper and all round punting legend (who is no longer with us, so I’ll respect his anonymity).
He had contacts everywhere – including one in an auditing company somewhere in the North West that dealt with all the voting for TV shows, such as I’m A Celebrity..., Pop Idol, then X-Factor and the like.
In the mid-00s this company also took over the handling of PFA Player of the Year votes too. Which, as you can imagine was a lucrative – if short-lived – benefit for me and the X man – and our subscribers.
(In fact, backing Ryan Giggs to win the 2009 Player of the Year was the bet that got my accounts closed with Hills and Bet £3.65 and massively limited elsewhere. But it did pay the deposit for my house.)
Who can you trust? Sweet FA…
But the point of the story is this…
During phone conversations with our man on the inside, it emerged that Mr X wasn’t the only one keeping tabs on how the voting was going with a view to piling in. A fairly high-profile FA administrator – whose name you would recognise, but I’ll keep to myself rather than risk landing myself and Ben in a legal barrel of thumbs – was also a regular caller. So much so that our man warned us away from using the FA guy’s particular bookmaker (Sky Bet) for our own bets.
Oh and just in case you were wondering – the latest literature on the FA’s blanket ban on betting for all players and associated club employees warns of six-figure fines and bans of up to five years.
Which is arguably less believable than my yarn. But both are true.
What you can bet on this week…
The fixtures have gone a bit skew-whiff this week, with matches every day from Wednesday to Monday. So I’ll be delivering an eight-match Preview on Thursday, then on Friday I’ll post some Coupon Busters based on the six weekend matches (Saturday – Monday).
Who the hell is Matt Nesbitt?
Punter. Tipster. Collector. Of winnings.
Meet the good boy behind Badman Betting...
World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson
The planned football career that would allow Matt to spend every afternoon in the bookies was cut mercifully short. So he was able to spend his mornings there too.
But rather than spunk his (sweet) FA pension on a day-tripper to Palookaville, Matt played smart. He watched, he listened. Learned his trade and earned a reputation.
But the bookies don’t like a winner...
First they closed his accounts. Then they tried legal action to shut down his tipping services. Now they employ him.
Matt has been providing winning football advice since 1998. And whether it has been via post, premium rate phone line, email, TV or Twitter – he has always made punters money.
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