What we learned from Game Week 31 & FA Cup 6th Rnd

Wednesday, March 21 2018

We’re hitting a nice groove now, collecting another tidy 4.46pts from our Smart Bets and another 5.4 from Friday’s Coupon Busters. So along come the International friendlies to ruin everything.

GW 31


Pts Profit

Tap Ins

5 out of 7


Smart bets

5 out of 7


Long Shots

0 out of 1



1 out of 8



Hero of the weekend was Bournemouth’s Junior Stanislas for his 89th minute winner that added 2.36pts profit into the pot.  

Coupon Busters

Pts Profit



Value Picks





Demon of the week was Saint Cedric of Soares. The Southampton right-back whose late, inexplicable left-wing burst and finish put rubbed Wigan’s noses in it – and rubbed out our 11/2 Correct Score.   

And my weekend cock-up – which is becoming a theme (eyes roll) was telling you to take Romelu Lukaku in the Last Goal Scorer market, not the First. I’ve given myself a Chinese burn.

Here’s what else we learned at the weekend…

It’s the best time of the season for punting…

There’s plenty of form in the book, all teams and players are bang at it with pots being dangled - or relegation being threatened. And – importantly – everyone knows exactly what they need to do. 
It is so much easier to accurately profile a match that has an agenda. Whether it is a cup second leg, overcoming a first leg deficit… or a team handpicking their matches to hit an end-of-season points total. It’s like getting the nod on a race that one horse is trying to win, but the other is just there for a blowout. But let’s not get into Cheltenham…

It’ll be an exciting end to the season for Stoke fans for a change…

I didn’t see the home defeat to Everton coming. Not sure even Big Sam did after just 1pt from the previous six away days – and that looted from an already burnt out West Brom. 

On the (not very) bright side, it has set up a grandstand finish to the season. Assignments at Arsenal (0pts), West Ham (1-3pts) and Liverpool (0pts) and home matches against Tottenham (0-1pts) and Burnley (1-3pts) will neither condemn, nor save the Potters. 

So their fate will be decided by successive six-pointers v Palace and Swansea in their final two matches. Both of whom might need their fate deciding too. 

Fuck Man City’s lap of honour, THAT’S where SKY should be on final day. And not just because we’re on the Relegation Treble of West Brom, Stoke & Southampton at 16/1. Now 10/3. 

Gawd knows how the World Cup in Russia is going to pan out…

No, I’m not talking about the platoons of hairy shouldered hooligans - all built like power lifters and charged up home-made vodka – itching to kick the world in the Gulags. Or, yer man Putin and his chemical brothers. I’m talking about the team that Gareth Southgate has got to try to build from the ливень дерьма (google it) on offer.

At the risk of going all Joey Barton, I can’t remember another period where no one has any idea who the goalkeeper, both centre backs, the left back, one central midfielder or the formation of the national team was. Never mind the best 11.

But…er… I’d still have a sneaky tenner on going out in the quarter-finals to Germany on penalties. 
I’ll be having a look at the internationals and if there is anything you should know about, you’ll know about it.


Matt Nesbitt

Premier Injury INDEX

Sunday, March 18 2018



West Brom are languishing at the bottom from the Premier League, eight-points from safety, and Alan Pardew said his senior players would “need to deliver” if the Baggies stood any chance of remaining in the top-flight.

Jonny Evans certainly falls into that category, and the returning captain merits some serious consideration heading into the remaining two months of the campaign.

The centre-back has attracted a lot of attention during recent windows – Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United – all touted as potential destinations which saw his stock rise up-to £1.58 in late-December on the INDEX.

Evans is currently sitting around 27% below that high and with more interest expected in the summer, his price can only go one way on the INDEX.

Coupon Busters - GW 31 + FA Cup Qtrs

Saturday, March 17 2018


Short and sharp this week. I’ve got to see a man about a horse this afternoon.

Tally ho!

Banker of the Week

Only Liverpool at home to Watford qualifies as a Nailed-on pick in the PL this weekend. From the FA Cup quarter-finals we get another at Old Trafford, where United have to beat Brighton to save face – and their season. So there’s a Double. 

And I’m also prepared to add Tottenham to the party. The FA Cup is a bigger deal following their Champions League exit and the semi and the final will be played at home.

Bet: Treble – Liverpool, Tottenham and Man United to Win at 7/5.
Value of the Week

Despite not qualifying as a Nailed-on pick, I’m happy to go with Bournemouth to beat dead-team-walking West Brom. Ten of their last 11 have seen goals at both ends too (the anomaly being a clean sheet at Chelsea) so let’s double-up, shall we?

And then sprinkle a Man United Win To Nil on the top. No more wriggle room for Jose.

Bet: Double - Bournemouth Win & BTTS & Man United Win to Nil at 6/1

Goal Scorers

  • Romelu Lukaku has emerged as one of United’s stand-up (if not stand out) performers and loves playing the likes of Brighton. Last Scorer 11/4.
  • Heung-Min Son is the go to guy with Kane missing. Seven in his last four for Spurs. First Scorer 7/2.


Sign up with William Hill and stake £10 on the Premier League this weekend and you’ll get £30 in free bets. Get stuck in here…

I'll be back on Monday to pick the bones out.

Matt Nesbitt

Who the hell is Matt Nesbitt?

Punter. Tipster. Collector. Of winnings.

Meet the good boy behind Badman Betting...

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

The planned football career that would allow Matt to spend every afternoon in the bookies was cut mercifully short. So he was able to spend his mornings there too.

But rather than spunk his (sweet) FA pension on a day-tripper to Palookaville, Matt played smart. He watched, he listened. Learned his trade and earned a reputation.

But the bookies don’t like a winner...

First they closed his accounts. Then they tried legal action to shut down his tipping services. Now they employ him.

Matt has been providing winning football advice since 1998. And whether it has been via post, premium rate phone line, email, TV or Twitter – he has always made punters money.

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