Midweek Coupon Busters - Game Week 17

Tuesday, December 12 2017

 

Got a bit splattered by milk and energy drink at the weekend. A full investigation is underway.

This week we’re flicking the ‘v’s at the posing cockney so and sos of Chelsea and Arsenal. And saying ‘what the holy f…?’ to Christian Benteke and Dejan Lovren. Clumsy pair of bastards.   

Bit unlucky with Watford failing to score – for, ahem, the first time this season. Cost us a 12/1 winner that would’ve made everything all right. 

The good thing is, Premier League matches are like the Chinese Army. There’s always a new battalion on the horizon…

Match Results

  1. Burnley to beat Stoke
  2. Chelsea to beat Huddersfield             £1 Double returns £3.30
  3. Liverpool to beat West Brom
  4. Tottenham to beat Brighton
  5. Man City to beat Swansea
  6. Man United to beat Bournemouth       £1 Acca returns £8       

This looks a gimme, all ways around. I take no credit for pointing it out – and better looking six-folds have fallen over before now. But it is worth a silly quid of anyone’s money.  Burnley are on offer at odds-against so should be included in any variation, such as the Tuesday Twosome highlighted.


Win To Nil

  1. Burnley to beat Stoke
  2. Liverpool to beat West Brom
  3. Chelsea to beat Huddersfield        £2 Trixie returns £15.93 (any two pays £4)

 

  1. Man City to beat Swansea
  2. Man United to beat Bournemouth
  3. Tottenham to beat Brighton           £2 Trixie returns £9.52 (any two pays £3.66)


All six should logically, legally, sensibly win To Nil. But it’s not an exact science, this. So to cover ourselves we’ll place two Trixies.*

*If you’d been paying attention at the weekend, you’d remember that a Trixie is four bets in one – three Doubles and a Treble. Stakes are multiplied by four, so this is a 50p bet x 4 = £2. Are you chewing at the back…?

 

Draws

  1. Palace v Watford
  2. Newcastle v Everton
  3. West Ham v Arsenal          £2 Trixie returns £41.40 (any two pays £11)

I’ll level with you – I fancy all of these. And wouldn’t blame you a miserable bit placing a Double or a Treble

 

Both Teams to Score

  1. Palace v Watford
  2. Southampton v Leicester        £1 Double returns £3
  3. West Ham v Arsenal               £1 Treble returns £5.50

Three more solid looking punts here. 

Fire at will.

Matt Nesbitt

Midweek Preview - Game Week 17

Tuesday, December 12 2017

 

On the twelfth day of Christmas my BadMan gave to me… a full program of Premier League predictions. 

I’ve thrown a Long Shots category into the soup to give us a bit more flexibility.

So you’ll now get Tap-ins which are mainly short-price, for topping up Doubles, Trebles and Accas. Smart Money bets that show you the best value angle of attack. And Long Shots for a punt when we’ve only got scraps to feed on. 

The Scorecasts are for tackling things like Sky’s Super 6 £250k or Colossus’ £5k - £5 million jackpots      

Don’t sign up without snaffling up your £100 in free bets with this code: RAFMTS5UU4

Tuesday:

Burnley v Stoke City
Burnley have slipped into that ‘Everton’ position – no chance of cracking the Top Six, but well capable of seeing off anybody from 8th down. Five wins from seven and will look forward to playing Stoke – and you never used to be able to say that.      
Tap in: Home Win and 5/4 looks good value. 
Smart Money: Burnley & Under 2.5 Goals at 16/5.
Scorecast:  A fifth 1-0 of the campaign.

Crystal Palace v Watford
Ol’ Clumsy Bastard cost Palace a long overdue win – and us a 4/1 winner – from the spot at the weekend. But will find Watford a tough nut to crack. Three good performances have yielded just a single point. They look good for at least another here.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 4/6.
Long Shot: Watford & Both Teams to Score is value at 19/4. 
Scorecast: Another draw that neither wants – 2-2.

Huddersfield v Chelsea
Huddersfield needed Saturday’s win but have picked their battles this season – just 4pts and three goals from six matches v Top Seven - so won’t have scheduled a return form this one. It’s Chelsea that need the win here. 
Tap in: Chelsea win but 2/5 is short.
Smart Money:  Chelsea & Under 3.5 Goals is better at Evens. 
Scorecast: Normal service resumed – 0-2.

Wednesday:
Newcastle United v Everton 
Newcastle’s late OG is the sort of thing that can crush spirits – and take down 3/1 bets, eyes roll. They are teetering on the edge at the moment and Everton will be feeling mischievous after smuggling a point out of Anfield (and pick pocketing a 7/1 winning slip from us). 
Tap in: Everton Draw No Bet at 11/10.
Long Shot: Everton & Both Teams to Score is worth a punt at 11/2.
Scorecast:  A 1-1 won’t be a bad night’s work for both managers. 

Southampton v Leicester City
Southampton get on my bugle, they really do. Were they good, or was it a bit early for Arsenal’s darlings? At least they offer a goal threat with Charlie back in the fold. Leicester are three from three but will have to work harder for anything they get out of this match than at Newcastle. 
Tap in: Both teams to Score at 4/5.
Smart Money: The Draw & Both Teams to Score looks value at 17/5.
Scorecast: All square 1-1.

Swansea v Man City
Seeing off West Brom probably bought Paul Clement a bit of time, regardless of what happens against City. Losing won’t define their season so a spirited showing will do here. Likewise for City. Expect them to do enough but I suspect the team will be picked with Tottenham on Saturday in mind. 
Smart Money: Man City & Under 3.5 Goals allows 0-3 or another 1-2. 6/5 is fair.
Scorecast: An arms-length-hand-on-head 0-2.

Liverpool v West Brom
West Brom could suffer a backlash here for Liverpool’s custard pie-ing at the weekend. Klopp will be fuming. Lovren, watching.  West Brom’s 0-0 v Palace and listless 1-0 defeat at Swansea will have no doubt delighted the board as they counted out Tony Pulis’ severance pay. 
Tap in: Liverpool to Nil at 10/11.
Long Shot: Correct Score 3-0 at 6/1.  
Scorecast: Err, 3-0.

Man United v Bournemouth
United will be glad to get back on the pitch – and even more pleased that Man City aren't on it. They are as efficient at home to teams below them (seven wins, one goal conceded) as Bournemouth are cannon fodder to Top Half teams (one point from eight games). Liverpool, Chelsea (in the cup) and City up next. Ouch.
Tap in: Man United Win to Nil at Evens.
Long Shot: Correct Score 3-0.
Scorecast: Back in the saddle 3-0.

Tottenham v Brighton
Losing at Huddersfield would’ve sent Brighton reeling a bit. It’s just one point (and one goal) from four matches now and no goals away to Top Half teams. Spurs’ looked back to their old selves against Stoke and more of the same would be a good tune up for City at the weekend. 
Tap in: Tottenham Win to Nil at 10/11.
Long Shot: Three in three Son to be First Scorer is value at 4/1
Scorecast: Threesy does it 3-0

West Ham v Arsenal
After matching Man City for 85 minutes and beating Chelsea, the Hammers will be looking to put a dent or two in the Gunners. Arsenal’s away record is only marginally better than Bournemouth and Brighton, neither of whom would be anywhere near 4/6 favourites to win this.
Tap in: Double Chance West Ham/ Draw has to be taken at 5/4.
Smart Money: West Ham & Both Teams to Score is value at 8/1. 
Scorecast: A fancy Arsenal will summon enough for a point 1-1.

I’ve got tray full of delicious homemade Coupon Busters in the oven. Ready to serve shortly…
   
Matt Nesbitt

TV Guide - Scouse and Manc Derbies

Saturday, December 9 2017

 

Only landed one of four bets from last weekend’s Match Profiles, but it was a satisfying one. Getting a 6/4 return from a Man City home win is like getting four cans of ‘spesh for the price of a bottle of White Lightning.

Let’s have a glug on Super Strength Sunday…

Liverpool v Everton. 2.15 on Sky

There are those who insist on tearing up the formbook when it comes to derbies. Others throw it out the window. Some do both. Then sweep up the pieces and burn them. And bury the charred remains.
I don’t. And here’s why…

  • Everton haven’t won a Merseyside derby since 2011. 12 matches ago. 
  • Liverpool have won six and five have been drawn of the last 11.
  • Liverpool have won seven and drawn one of their matches v teams outside the Top Eight (Everton are currently 10th).
  • Liverpool have scored 38 goals in their last 12 matches. Three per match. 

The formbook told me all that. Never left the house. No black stuff on fingers. 

It will also tell you that Everton have won three on the spin, scoring nine and conceding zip. But I’ll add (in crayon over the top) that West Ham, Huddersfield and Ap Limassol are not a realistic barometer to judge this match. It’s a slamdunk, Badmen.   

The tricky bit is finding value (‘cos those pesky Bookies’ don’t tear up their formbooks). 

We can strike a line through almost all the Home Win options (see below) based on price. But I’ve included a decent punt on Wazza, that will add a bit of enjoyment to watching the match if nothing else.

Tap Ins

  • Home Win at 2/1
  • Liverpool Win to Nil at 6/4
  • Liverpool Win & Over 2.5 Goals at 8/13 
  • Wayne Rooney to have 1+ Shot on Target at 4/5 (Coral #YourCall) 

Big Sam will set Everton up not to get beaten and if they do it well, they could get to half-time level. At a slither less than 3/1 it is juuuust about worth a punt (as we’re struggling for anything else).

Expect Everton to be physical, but Liverpool don’t pick up bookings – and tear-ups are a thing of the past. So we can go low on Cards. Corners are tricky, but I’m banking low based on a tight first hour, a lack of qualify possession for Everton and Liverpool not chasing the game.  

Long Shots

  • Draw/ Liverpool in the HT/ FT at 29/10
  • Liverpool Win, Under 10.5 Corners & Under 55.5 Booking Points at 10/3 (Coral #YourCall)
  • Liverpool Win, Both Teams to Score: NO, Under 10.5 Corners & Under 55.5 Booking Points at 7/1 (Coral #YourCall)

And now the big one…

Man United v Man City. 4.30pm on Sky.

This is a much trickier nut to crack. Form only tells us so much – United are perfect at home, City perfect away. 

United’s mugging of Arsenal last weekend will have them pumped up, but conceding 75% possession and 16 shots on target won’t produce 3-1 wins very often. City’s first loss of the season in midweek shouldn’t ruffle them too much but they have started to concede a few goals (four in four), which could be an indication they are slowing up a tad.

But I think the context of the game is the key here. City’s eight point lead at the top means a draw would do very nicely thank you. United need to win. 

This doesn’t mean Jose will go gung-ho. Hell no. But he will release the handbrake on the bus in the last 20 minutes or so, if United haven’t been passed to death by then.

(And by the way, this is the only time in your or my lifetime that you will get 9/4 for a Man United Home Win. I’m a little bit tempted purely based on that fact). 

Play this one three times and you could get three different results.

I can't see a lot of goals, but there's no real value in going low. But I’m not going to get drawn into a prediction – other than I don’t expect it to be a classic. It would just be a guess.

Instead I’m going to speculate on value and add a bit of flavour to the spectacle with a couple of long range efforts…   

Tap Ins

  • Under 3.5 Goals at 4/11
  • First Half Result: Draw at 11/10

Long Shots

  • Draw/ Draw in the Half-time/ Full-time at 17/4
  • Draw/ Man United at 6/1

Hey. Phew. Rock n roll.

Matt Nesbitt

Who the hell is Matt Nesbitt?

Punter. Tipster. Collector. Of winnings.

Meet the good boy behind Badman Betting...

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

The planned football career that would allow Matt to spend every afternoon in the bookies was cut mercifully short. So he was able to spend his mornings there too.

But rather than spunk his (sweet) FA pension on a day-tripper to Palookaville, Matt played smart. He watched, he listened. Learned his trade and earned a reputation.

But the bookies don’t like a winner...

First they closed his accounts. Then they tried legal action to shut down his tipping services. Now they employ him.

Matt has been providing winning football advice since 1998. And whether it has been via post, premium rate phone line, email, TV or Twitter – he has always made punters money.

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