What we learned from Game Week 33

Monday, April 9 2018

 

No bicep kissing this weekend. We returned a measly 1.4pts profit and I’ve spent the weekend self-harming, because it should’ve been more. But I’ll get on to that…

A tidy four out of five Tap Ins nudged us in front, but shambolic seven duck eggs from nice (not very) Smart Bets dug us a 4.6pts hole, which we only just scrambled out of thanks to a Long Shot and a Scorecast hitting the spot. 

 

GW 33

Strikerate

Pts Profit

Tap Ins

4 out of 5

1.16

Smart bets

2 out of 9

-4.60

Long Shots

1 out of 3

4.50

Scorecasts

1 out of 10

2.0


The Jekyll and Hyde hero of the weekend was Chris Smalling. The United centre back was chiefly responsible for City taking a two-goal lead, but then volleyed the unlikely winner to deliver our 13/2 Man Utd Win & BTTS Long Shot.  

Coupon Busters

Pts Profit

Bankers

0.6

Value Picks

-1.0

TV Treble

-1.0

 

Villain of the week was Brighton’s Steve Duffy, whose through ball for Huddersfield’s Steve Mounie was gratefully accepted – taking down our 5/1 1-0 Scorecast AND the 11/4 Treble featured in our Coupon Busters.    

But the real guilty party this weekend was the clown that writes this post (whoever that is).

Here’s what else we learned at the weekend…

Tip like you’ve got a set…

Two apologies to make. First, my Everton v Liverpool tips were shit. Not because I got it wrong, my crime was worse. I called it correctly, but failed to draw any profit from it. Which comes from either being an idiot, or failing to put your pods on the chopping block. Which is what happened.

I withdrew two bets at the last minute. The Everton v Liverpool Draw was one and Chelsea v West Ham Draw & BTTS the other, changing it to a Chelsea win. Now, this might sound like after-timing to make myself a big time Charlie, but it isn’t. 

I’m naming and shaming myself because the motivation for withdrawing the two was because it would’ve meant too many draws – and I was concerned it might look I was sitting on the fence. So I sat on the fence. What a dickhead.  

It pays to be optimistic… 

Like most people, I could only see one outcome at half-time at the Etihad on Saturday. It was just a case of how cruel City were feeling and how many they’d get. I’d certainly given up on the Man United Win & BTTS and the 50/1 available in-play on a United Win at Halt-time prompted little more than a smirk in my house. But not everyone gave it up…

As you probably know, I also work for the enemy – first the bookies close your accounts, then they want you to work for them. And after a while you say ‘yes’. So I now write, consult and consort from the dark side. (I’m not supposed to say who, so ignore the two bookmakers – who have recently merged – in the next sentence. Mum’s the word). 

I happen to know that fourteen brave punters snapped up the 50/1 on offer on Man United to Win at half-time at City across the Coral and Ladbrokes brands. The biggest bet was just a fiver, but even so I wish I’d been watching the match in the same pub as him on Saturday. 

Even the very best get it wrong…

In the last week the wheels have - if not come off Man City’s season, they have certainly buckled. Pep got his selection wrong at Man City - yeah, I said it! – but the first and third goals were littered with shoddy mistakes.And although Man United’s second half response was very good – giving their fans a glimpse of what they could have been watching this season! – City were all over the place at the back.  

Whether they have taken their foot off the gas… or we have simply not noticed their frailties before because their front six have been so good this season… or maybe Kompany and Otamendi are too flat-footed and stiff to be play together… I dunno. But I know this…

I’m wading into the 7/5 available on Man City to Win & Both Teams to Score on Tuesday night.   

We cannot lose on our 16/1 relegation treble…

Defeats for Stoke and Southampton put another nail in their coffins (West Brom’s is already being lowered into the soil). The 16/1 West Brom/ Stoke/ Southampton Relegation Treble recommended on February 27th post is now down to 13/10, so if you’re nervous you could easily spend a few points of your profit protecting your bet.

Either by trading your position on Betfair, or by backing the West Brom/ Stoke/ Huddersfield Treble at 2/1 for insurance. I can’t see Southampton getting out of it personally, but if they do Huddersfield look the most vulnerable of the pack hovering about the chasm.

I’m sitting tight, but the way. I’ve already cost money this week by getting the jitters.

Thursday, yeah?

Matt Nesbitt

Who the hell is Matt Nesbitt?

Punter. Tipster. Collector. Of winnings.

Meet the good boy behind Badman Betting...

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

The planned football career that would allow Matt to spend every afternoon in the bookies was cut mercifully short. So he was able to spend his mornings there too.

But rather than spunk his (sweet) FA pension on a day-tripper to Palookaville, Matt played smart. He watched, he listened. Learned his trade and earned a reputation.

But the bookies don’t like a winner...

First they closed his accounts. Then they tried legal action to shut down his tipping services. Now they employ him.

Matt has been providing winning football advice since 1998. And whether it has been via post, premium rate phone line, email, TV or Twitter – he has always made punters money.

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