Premier League Preview - Game Week 33Friday, April 6 2018
That Matt Nesbitt is relentless. Here he is again with a look at the Premier League coupon...
Not superstitious are you?
‘Cos if you are, I’m about to put the kybosh on this week’s tips. Ready? Here goes…
We’ve taken 82.39pts profit from the last four weekends. Including Coupon Busters, that is – which will be along later on.
So we’re deep in the cleavage of a hot streak, or due a stumble. You decide.
Still with me?
Wise move, Badman. Wise move.
The Tap Ins are included regardless of price, so I’d reserve them for topping up Accas at best. Or even bypass them totally.
The Smart Money bets are the best way of dredging a bit of value out of the bookies. And any Long Shots are decent priced punts that have some statistical merit.
12.30pm Everton v Liverpool
Hmm. You can’t help thinking that the context of this match will play a part. With Liverpool 90 minutes into a season-defining Champions League tussle with Man City if this was anyone but the bluenoses, a few big hitters would be left in storage for this one. But it isn’t. And the arch spoiler Big Sam will be rubbing his hands at the prospect of putting a bit of gloss on a very forgettable reign/ season so far.
Just 3pts from a possible 39pts v Top Seven teams doesn’t look good on paper. But the blue side of Liverpool will be looking forward to this more than the red side - especially the bus ride in. I reckon it could be 4pts from 42pts come 2.30pm.
Scorecast: 1-1 at 6/1.
Long Shot: Liverpool win from behind at 9/1.
3pm Bournemouth v Crystal Palace
Bournemouth’s total football approach makes them the PL’s great entertainers. In a mediocre mid-table kinda way. They certainly don’t care much for clean sheets – it’s just one in 13 – and they like a late goal; their last six matches have seen goals in the final minute. Three for, three against. Just three defeats (from 17) v Bottom Half teams this season, but not enough wins (W6 D8) has meant they have only scratched the surface of the Top Half.
Five defeats from the last six has seen Palace slip back to the precipice, but decent performances, late goals from good opposition make me think they might be okay. And could get something here.
Scorecast: 2-2 at 11/1.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 4/6.
Smart Money: Bournemouth & BTTS at 17/5.
3pm Brighton v Huddersfield Town
Brighton’s home defeat to Leicester last week put a bit of a blot on a tidy run of form (W3 D2 L1) that had them looking upwards, rather than at the scrum below. And they were a bit unlucky, to be fair – that missed penalty will have ruined Glenn Murray’s week. They still have a 3pt advantage over their visitors and a game in hand, but will see this six-pointer as a chance to place a boot on Huddersfield’s collective head and scramble to safety once and for all.
The terrible Terriers haven’t scored since their West Brom win four games ago. And that’s been their touble all season.
Scorecast: 1-0 at 5/1.
Tap in: Brighton Draw No Bet at 1/3.
Smart Money: Brighton Win & Under 2.5 Goals at 5/2.
3pm Leicester City v Newcastle United
Two teams in reasonable form – just one defeat in their last 13 between them. Both teams will have hoped for better this season, but have probably just about punched their weight. Newcastle have only lost three of 16 matches to Bottom Half teams (W8 D5) and Leicester just the two (W8 D6).
Newcastle will carry more motivation into the match, thinking a win will secure another Premier League stint next term. But I suspect they wouldn’t turn their nose up at a draw. One or two in Leicester’s ranks might already being thinking about their holidays.
Scorecast: 1-1 at 8/1.
Tap in: Leicester Draw No Bet at 2/5.
Smart Money: Leicester & BTTS at 16/5.
3pm Stoke City v Tottenham Hotspur
Anything but a win and Stoke are bang in trouble. So anybody but Tottenham would’ve been preferable (Man City aside). Only City have been more ruthless on their travels over the last 10 matches and if Spurs needed a boost (which they didn’t) coming from behind to win at Chelsea for the first time in a dogs life would do the trick. Fact: Only three of Spurs’ starters were born the last time they won at the Bridge.
Tottenham will have a jump to 3rd place in their sights with the (currently 2pts better off) Liverpool in the tricky looking Mersey derby this weekend. Stoke may well need four wins from their last five matches after this.
Scorecast: 0-2 at 11/2.
Tap in: Tottenham Win at 1/3.
Smart Money: Tottenham Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 23/20.
Long Shot: Tottenham Win from Behind at 8/1.
3pm Watford v Burnley
Has the look of a dead-rubber about it. Of course, Watford will want to finish as high above halfway as they can – 10th looks possible, 9th ambitious, 8th fanciful! And of course, Burnley will want to hang on to 7th place having sat there most of the season. Plus, both are in form. Watford have matched Liverpool at home over the last month and wins are like London buses for Burnley – 12 without a sniff and then three arrive all at once.
I know I’ve already got plenty of splinters in my arse this week, but the absence of emergency in both teams’ status makes think another stalemate.
Scorecast: 1-1 at 5/1.
Smart Money: Burnley Draw no Bet at 5/4.
3pm West Brom v Swansea City
The Baggies’ season has gone from bad to worse, then back to bad again. And then into the side of a mountain killing everybody on board. Pardew’s dismissal might prompt a flicker of a response from the players that hated him most, but the fat lady has long cleared her throat and is well into the second verse. They’ve still got Man United, Liverpool and Tottenham to come. Jeesh.
Swansea are not quite out of trouble yet, but if their situation hasn’t improved significantly by end of play here they deserve a nerve-shredding finale. All their bedfellows are also away from home this weekend with tougher tasks.
Scorecast: 1-2 at 11/1.
Tap in: Double Chance – Swansea or Draw at 6/10.
Smart Money: Swansea Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 14/5.
5.30pm Man City v Man United
There was talk of City prioritising Tuesday second leg v Liverpool even before their 0-3 first leg drubbing. But there’s also the chance of clinching the title against the not-so-noisy neighbours, which should lift the mood a little. So let’s not expect City to roll over let United tickle their bellies. Another poor show here won’t do.
We know Jose will be set up not to lose. And I daresay it will be as muscular a line-up as he muster. There wasn’t much between them in the Old Trafford defeat and I fancy United can smuggle something away from the Etihad. It might be their cup final.
Scorecast: 1-1 at 6/1.
Smart Money: First Half result a Draw at 23/20.
Long Shot: Man United Win & BTTS at 13/2.
2.15pm Arsenal v Southampton
Could Mark Hughes take two teams down in the same season? It’s going to take something as spectacular as one of his volleys for the Saints to clamber out of the hole they have dug for themselves. Successive 0-3 drubbings away to Bottom Third Newcastle and West Ham is not the best way to prepare for three more trips to Top Half opposition before the end of the campaign. Oh and there is Chelsea and Man City at home too.
Arsenal seem to have stirred from their mid-season nap, at home at least – where they remain only bettered by the Manchester duo. It’s looking increasingly like sixth place and the Europa League, which isn’t that much different from fourth place and the FA Cup. A familiar story over the last 15 years or so.
Scorecast: 3-0 at 11/1.
Tap in: Arsenal to Win at 4/7.
Smart Money: Arsenal to Win to Nil at 2/1.
4.30pm Chelsea v West Ham
The three points against Southampton last week not only kept the fans off the pitch but could go a long way to keeping West Ham in the Premier League. The job is not done yet though and the Hammers’ run-in is as troublesome as anyone’s in the dogfight. There are home points to be had from Stoke up next and Everton on the final day, but Chelsea’s sloppy form over the last couple of month’s makes this look as fruitful as it has for a while.
Only wins over West Brom and (somewhat fortunately) Crystal Palace have punctuated a run of five defeats, including two at home. Last week’s put Tottenham out of reach, so it’s all about the FA Cup for Chelsea.
There won’t be much between these two.
Scorecast: 2-1 at 8/1.
Smart Money: Chelsea Win & BTTS at 2/1.
There’ll be a distinctly Coupon Bustin’ vibe in the air shortly.
Who the hell is Matt Nesbitt?
Punter. Tipster. Collector. Of winnings.
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The planned football career that would allow Matt to spend every afternoon in the bookies was cut mercifully short. So he was able to spend his mornings there too.
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