TV Guide - Game Week 23: Man United v Stoke

Monday, January 15 2018

 

Hope you were on the 7/2 and 6/1 winners highlighted in Liverpool v Man City match. Not a bad watch too.

After 70-odd minutes of Bournemouth v Arsenal I was daring to dream about the 32/1 flagged up in Friday’s Coupon Busters. But Petr Cech clearly had his money elsewhere. 

Probably for the best – I’d have never shut up about it. And probably woken up in a bin this morning. 

But there’s always tonight…

Man United v Stoke. 8pm on Sky Sports. 

On paper, this isn’t a difficult puzzle to solve: The Premier League’s second best home team + the worst away team = home win. All day. 

The challenge is dredging a bit of betting value out of the match... 

The appointment of a Paul Lambert might get a bit of a bounce from Stoke. Either from players keen to impress their new boss, or from those thinking they might prefer to a new boss elsewhere. It happens.

Plus, Stoke can play free from the pressure of trying to win the match. Their next six will define their season, not this one.  

The potential/ possible arrival of Alexis Sanchez might also get a response from one or two of United’s front players. And with Arsenal and Chelsea dropping points at the weekend, Jose can make ground in the race for second place. No room for a third home draw here.

So let’s play it like this…

Tap In

  • Man United to Win To Nil at 10/11

It makes my sphincter pucker to go below Evens for a Win To Nil bet, but you’re not gonna thank me for telling you to back a Home Win at 2/9, are you? Personally, I’m swerving in this for the following…

Smart Bets

  • Draw/ Man United in the HT/FT at 14/5

United have been level at the break in their last six matches (all comps). So there might be a bit of value in backing a hardworking Stoke keeping United’s workmanlike attack out for an hour or so.

  • Man United & Under 3.5 Goals at 6/4  

This covers the 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 and 2-1. United haven’t hit three or more for ten matches, so we should be good.  

Long Shots

  • Man United to Win, Both Teams to Score: NO, Under 11.5 Corners & Over 35.5 Booking Points at 7/1 (via Coral’s #YourCall)

To add a bit of spice, lets reinvest a bit of our Liverpool v Man City winnings on this four-way. I’m happy with United winning to Nil with a measure of control that will bring it in under 11.5 Corners. And I’m going over 35.5 Booking Points (i.e. four Yellow Cards) based on one or two Stoke players playing to the crowd/ new manager. Worth a silly fiver. 

I’ll pick up the pieces tomo with a review of the weekend. 

Matt Nesbitt

Ben Dinnery

Ben Dinnery

@BenDinnery

Ben is football’s leading injury specialist. The ‘go-to’ guru for big hitters like Sky Sports, ESPN and NBC Sports when they need data. Or the BBC, talkSPORT and the broadsheets when a quote is required. His unique insight has helped provide a better understanding of what is really happening in the treatment rooms.


Johnny Wilson

Johnny Wilson

@johnny_wilson5

Johnny is a respected physiotherapist and sports scientist, specialising in football injuries and rehab. Johnny has headed up the medical departments at Chesterfield, Scunthorpe and Notts County. Overseeing everything from player-specific training loads to pre-signing medicals. He has a proven record working with elite athletes in Private Practice and is regularly called upon throughout Europe to deliver presentations on the latest rehab innovations.


Matt Nesbitt

Matt Nesbitt On TipTV

@MattNesbitt16

Matt's short, unremarkable football career was ended by his own bad driving. His long, distinguished career as a football tipster was ended by his own good advice. Because bookmakers don’t like a winner. First, they closed his accounts. Then his members’ accounts. Then his tipping service. And now they employ him as a consultant. Funny old game.


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