Premier League Preview - Game Week 23Thursday, January 11 2018
It’s back to Premier League business this weekend after those FA Cup shenanigans. Some gnat’s chuff pricing from the bookies means we only cleared 1.65pts from the six matches covered, despite a couple of clean sweeps. Eyes roll.
Still, I’ve squeegeed my third eye and focussed it fairly and squarely on this weekend’s coupon. And this is what it saw…
As per, the Tap Ins are short-price bankers best used in Doubles, Trebles and Accas.
The Smart Money bets are for pick-pocketing a bit of value out of the bookies. And there are a few Long Shots in there that are worth a punt.
Suggested stakes: 1pt per Smart Money, 0.5pts per Long Shot up to 3/1, 0.25pts 3/1+.
The Scorecasts are for tackling things like Sky’s Super 6 £250k or Colossus’ £5k - £5 million jackpots
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Chelsea v Leicester
Coming sandwiched between EFL and FA Cup ties might add to the selection headaches, but it should be a straightforward enough home win. Chelsea are 100% at home to teams outside the Top Seven, conceding in just two of seven matches. Leicester are pointless in four visits to Top Half teams and have taken just 4pts from 32 v Top Six.
Tap in: Home Win but 2/7 is a no no.
Smart Money: Chelsea Win & Both Teams to Score is better at 19/10.
Scorecast: A repeat of the 2-1 at the King Power.
Crystal Palace v Burnley
After five without a win in the Premier League, Burnley’s 100% white team lead by a ginger (not my words, L’Equipe magazine, fact) can’t afford to leave Palace empty handed. But Roy’s Boys have become accustomed to picking up points themselves. A creditable 17 from 10 games. And won’t roll over to those last century throwbacks with flat noses and big ears (yep, L’Equipe again).
Tap in: Burnley Draw No Bet at 13/8.
Smart Money: Draw & Under 2.5 Goals isn’t bad value at 13/5.
Scorecast: A 1-1 would satisfy both camps.
Huddersfield Town v West Ham
Similarly, neither of these will be happy with anything less than a point here. But I’m not sure either team has got the juice to force three. This dilemma has been reflected in both teams’ recent results – six draws from nine between them. Wouldn’t back against another here.
Tap in: Nothing tap-innable here.
Long Shot: Draw & Both Teams to Score looks the value at 7/2.
Scorecast: A slightly nervy 1-1.
Newcastle United v Swansea City
This match could be a defining one for both teams. A good cup win, four Premier League points and gutsy showing against Man City suggests a bit of momentum gathering for Newcastle. A win here will confirm it. Likewise, if Swansea lose here the stirring late revival at Watford can probably be put down to luck.
Tap in: Home Win at Evens.
Smart Money: Newcastle Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 7/5.
Long Shot: 1-0 and 2-0 Correct Scores at 5/1 and 7/1 (55:45 stakes).
Scorecast: I’ll go 2-0.
Watford v Southampton
Watford don’t seem to have won for months, but are still mid-table. But then you could say something about Southampton’s last five years. Just one away win all season – at a lowest-ebb Crystal Palace – should give Watford the chance to get a grip on their campaign again, but this isn’t one to put the farm on Badmen, so we’ll play the value.
Tap in: Watford or Draw at 4/11.
Long Shot: Watford Win & Both Teams to Score is value at 15/4.
Scorecast: Watford to edge it 2-1. I think.
West Brom v Brighton
This has the look of another pivotal match for both parties. West Brom will see it as the best chance of a PL win since Palace at home (December 2nd) and until Southampton at home (Feb 3rd). That coming after three ugly looking away trips to Everton, Liverpool (FA Cup) and Man City. BUT… Brighton will also see the chance to improve on their travel sickness – they’re five without a goal on the road.
Tap in: Under 2.5 Goals looks a gimme at 4/9.
Smart Money: The Draw & Under 2.5 Goals is worthy of the 9/4 offered.
Scorecast: Got a sneaky for Albion to pinch it – 1-0.
Tottenham v Everton
After a wobbly November, Tottenham had a good Christmas and look back ‘at it’. They have been very efficient against teams outside the Top Eight, with ten wins from 14 matches. In contract, Everton have gone flat after their initial Big Sam bounce. No wins in five – and just six shots on target (no, really!) – suggests Tottenham at a canter.
Tap in: Tottenham at a canter, but 1/4 is too short.
Smart Money: Tottenham Win & Under 3.5 Goals at Evens.
Scorecast: A comfortable 2-0.
Bournemouth v Arsenal
Bournemouth seem to have come through the cruel run of December fixtures – United, City and Liverpool in the PL and Chelsea in the EFL Cup – relatively unscathed. No wins, but five points from the three matches since is as good a spell as they’ve managed all season. Still no points and just two goals from eight v Top Seven teams though. Although the visit of Arsenal isn’t daunting. Just three away wins has the Gunners punching around Leicester, Watford and Newcastle’s weight on the road. Can’t see them beaten though.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 8/15.
Smart Money: Mmm, I’m split between Arsenal Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 12/5 and the Draw & BTTS at 4/1 (60:40).
Scorecast: Mmm, likewise 2-2/1-2, 2-2/ 1-2... 1-2.
Liverpool v Man City
Right then, who’s up for a little sport? I reckon Liverpool are one of the teams with the tools to beat City. And they’re in good fettle just now. With Dick Van Dyke on board their front four (five, or even six) will be happy to pour all over City and we know there are cracks, so expect a bit of seepage. Yes, yes, yes, City are well capable of scoring and winning at Anfield, but the value is with Liverpool. So let’s do it.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 4/9.
Smart Money: Liverpool Win & Both Teams to Score is value at 7/2.
Long Shot: The Draw/ Liverpool in the HT/ FT even more so at 6/1.
Scorecast: They both like a 2-1.
Man United v Stoke City
Should be a bit of a free hit for United. Missing a manager for any length of time during January is bound to have agents circling like buzzards above Stoke’s dazed and confused players. A trip to Old Trafford doesn’t inspire the chills (or thrills) that is once did, but only City have been better at home so far - just three teams have scored there this season. And they owe Stoke for the dropped away points in September.
Tap In: Home Win but 1/5 is, like, waaay short.
Smart Money: Man United Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 11/10.
Scorecast: How about a 3-0.
Hows about that then?
Who the hell is Matt Nesbitt?
Punter. Tipster. Collector. Of winnings.
Meet the good boy behind Badman Betting...
World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson
The planned football career that would allow Matt to spend every afternoon in the bookies was cut mercifully short. So he was able to spend his mornings there too.
But rather than spunk his (sweet) FA pension on a day-tripper to Palookaville, Matt played smart. He watched, he listened. Learned his trade and earned a reputation.
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