Premier League Preview - Game Week 19

Wednesday, December 20 2017


The Christmas chaos starts here. Expect thrills, spills and bellyaches. And evening kick offs.

Here is my Badman take on the Friday/ Saturday fixtures. The Tap-ins are made up of short-priced Double, Treble and Acca fodder. 

The Smart Money bets are for pick-pocketing a bit of value out of the bookies. And there are a few Long Shots in there that are worth a punt. Stake accordingly. 

The Scorecasts are for tackling things like Sky’s Super 6 £250k or Colossus’ £5k - £5 million jackpots    

And there’s £100 in free bets with Colossus is you sign up with this code: RAFMTS5UU4

Nurse...? The scalpel...

Arsenal v Liverpool
Liverpool have won the last four meetings, scoring 14 goals along the way. They can go one better than that in their last four on the road too, so we know what we’re getting from the visitors. 
Arsenal have been pretty much perfect at home. Man United is the only blot, but key.  Just a single point from four matches v Top Four teams tells a story.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 4/9.
Long Shot: Draw/ Draw in the HT/ FT is value at 5/1.
Scorecast: A point earned - 1-1 

Everton v Chelsea
The first real test of Big Sam’s reign – unless the test at Anfield was how to win with one attack (passed). Now secure in the mid-table ‘no fire’ zone, they will be set up to stifle, bully and bore.  Chelsea have so far had just enough to get over this type of hurdle, but I’m not convinced all is well going into Christmas. 
Tap in: Everton (+2) Match Handicap at 4/9.
Smart Bet: Draw & Under 2.5 Goals is value at 7/2.
Long Shot: Draw/ Everton is too big at 11/1.
Scorecast: As above, a point gained - 1-1.

Brighton v Watford
Brighton are one of the most consistent teams in the PL at home: Generally they beat the teams in the bottom third (W2 D1); lose to the Top Four (L2) and draw the rest (D4). Watford fit in the middle category and will be desperate not to leave empty handed after five winless matches and nothing going their way.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score is decent value at 10/11.
Smart Money:  The Draw & Both Teams To Score is worth a punt at 17/5.
Scorecast: Hmm. Another 1-1 by the looks.

Man City v Bournemouth
This won’t end 1-1. We know what City do so this is all about what Bournemouth bring to the orgy. I’m thinking not a lot, based on one less day preparation and three much more winnable matches to come in the next month. Bournemouth have only scored twice in eight matches v the top eight so far. Hold your nose and swallow, Mr Howe. 
Tap in: Even City/ City in the HT/FT is 4/9.  Eyes roll.
Smart Money: Man City to Nil pays 10/11, but I’d be tempted to swerve in favour of…
Scorecast:  A steady 3-0 pays 13/2.  

Southampton v Huddersfield
Currently three points behind Huddersfield and with just one win in nine (against a very poorly Everton a month ago) and yet the Saints are quote 4/7 to win this.  Let’s oppose it, shall we? The visitors looked on the edge of a cliff after a run of four bad losses, but seem to have flung the baddie over instead. Way to fling, Wagner. 
Tap in: Huddersfield (+2) Match Handicap at 4/9. 
Smart Money: Double Chance: Draw & Huddersfield at 13/10.
Long Shot: Huddersfield & Both Teams to Score HAS to be worth a punt at 11/1.
Scorecast: But they’ll take a 1-1.

Stoke v West Brom
Y’know that cliff that Huddersfield looked on the edge of a month ago? Well, Stoke are currently staring at the rocks below. Defeat to West Brom and they could be getting a closer look. It’s just one win in eight for Sparky and he could be running into West Brom at just the wrong time. Another second half like the one against Man United could get them something here.
Smart Money: Draw & Under 2.5 Goals at 5/2.
Long Shot: Draw/ Draw HT/FT at 13/4.
Scorecast: A repeat of last season’s 1-1.

Swansea v Crystal Palace
Swansea’s record over the last eight matches – LLDLLWLL – looks more like the name of a nearby town. Paul Clement clearly wasn’t cut out for a relegation scrap and you have to fear for his abandoned ugly ducklings. They need a ‘bounce’ against a Palace side fat from seven points - and goals - from their last three matches.   
Tap in: Palace Draw No Bet at 8/11.
Smart Money: Palace Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 2/1.
Scorecast: Palace on a roll - 0-1.

West Ham v Newcastle
This looks David Moyes’ easiest assignment so far. A fourth (PL) clean sheet in a row should be enough for a share of the points, but he’s also added a goal threat. Lanzini will be a miss, but Hernandez and – especially – Carroll will be chomping at the bit. Newcastle have only smuggled one away point off teams above them in the PL – and that’s 17 right now. Could be 18 by New Year.
Tap in: West Ham Draw No Bet at 1/2.
Smart Money: West Ham Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 17/10.
Scorecast: Newcastle’s fifth 1-0 defeat on the road.

Burnley v Tottenham
Burnley sit a point ahead of Spurs in the PL, with four wins from the last five at home. Tottenham meanwhile have only managed one (spawny) point on the road since September 30th, six matches ago. But are 8/15 to win the match. This is called reputation pricing by bookmakers and has to be taken on. Dip. Your. Bread. In.
Tap in: Burnley (+2) Match Handicap at 1/2. 
Smart Money: Double Chance: Burnley & Draw at 7/5.
Long Shots:  Burnley Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 13/2 and Burnley Win To Nil at 10/1.
Scorecast: Can see Tottenham smuggling a point, but that’s all. 1-1. 

Leicester v Man United
Leicester’s 0-3 slap from Palace is the only real stain on a tidy two-month run of form. Taking man City’s reserves to penalties won’t have done any harm to confidence and a visit from the red lot won’t worry them like it might’ve once. I don’t think all is well at United. Jose has based a career on winning ugly, but has never been so moody. No one looks happy and nor am I with the Away Win odds-on.  
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 4/5 is better.
Smart Money: First-half Result: Man United at 6/4.
Long Shot: Man United Win & Both Teams to Score at 14/5.
Scorecast: Just enough again – 1-2.

There'll be some coupon bustin' Coupon Busters and your TV Match Profiles along on Friday. Followed by your Boxing Day guide on Sunday.  

Keep it festive, yeah?

Matt Nesbitt



Who the hell is Matt Nesbitt?

Punter. Tipster. Collector. Of winnings.

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World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

The planned football career that would allow Matt to spend every afternoon in the bookies was cut mercifully short. So he was able to spend his mornings there too.

But rather than spunk his (sweet) FA pension on a day-tripper to Palookaville, Matt played smart. He watched, he listened. Learned his trade and earned a reputation.

But the bookies don’t like a winner...

First they closed his accounts. Then they tried legal action to shut down his tipping services. Now they employ him.

Matt has been providing winning football advice since 1998. And whether it has been via post, premium rate phone line, email, TV or Twitter – he has always made punters money.

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