TV Guide - Game Week 18: WBA v Man United & Bournemouth v LiverpoolSunday, December 17 2017
How do you get a 2/1 payout from an 8/13 bet? You bet like a Badman.
A tidy clean sweep from Man City's mauling of Tottenham. Now let's see what their progressively less noisy neighbours can muster...
WBA v Man United. 2.15pm on Sky
Okay, we all know Man United should win this. The bookies know this. Even Alan Pardew knows this. The trick is unpicking how they will do it. So here goes…
United have put four past the other four Bottom Five teams this season. But three of those were at Old Trafford. On the road, they have looked less convincing – keeping just three clean sheets from eight matches.
West Brom have performed better than the four point total suggests from their last five matches. But they are not going to open up on United and risk shattering whatever confidence has been built up by taking a hammering, especially with two much more winnable matches (Stoke and Everton) up next. Suspect they’d take another draw right now.
So I’ll be playing like this…
- Man United to Win at 4/7
Badmen don’t mess with no 4/7 bets. Let this slide and get smart…
- Man United Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 11/10
- Draw/ Man United in the HT/FT at 3/1
The odds-against options for an Away Win. And just for fun (and money that jingles, not folds) let’s have a punt on this…
- Man United Win, Both Teams to Score: NO, Over 9.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points at 15/2 (available with Coral’s #YourCall)
Quick bar and toilet break, then…
Bournemouth v Liverpool. 4.30 on Sky
Four drop points in the last two at home for Liverpool (or six in the last three if you include Chelsea) suggests we should expect a response.
Klopp’s Fab Four – or the ‘quad squad’, if you prefer – looked flat midweek. Perhaps still in a mood about the Merseyside derby mugging at the weekend – you know how seriously these Brazilians, Egyptians and Senegalese take local bragging rights… (Shit. Couldn’t. Give. A. Single.)
But it’s Liverpool’s shite six behind them that is the bigger issue.
Bournemouth scored six against Liverpool last season and will fancy outscoring them is their best route to points again this time. They were unlucky not to score against – and, perhaps beat – Man United in the week. But they do have problems with Top Half teams – just one point and three goals from nine matches so far this season.
So I’m thinking…
- Both Teams to Score at 4/6
Looks nailed on but too short to mess with on its own.
- Liverpool Win & Both teams to Score at 15/8
This is value at a smidgeon under 2/1. And in the interests of adding a bit of spice to the spectacle, this is a good case to be made for 10+ Corners and less than 4 Cards. You certainly wouldn’t have to play the match five times for it to deliver. Let’s hope it’s at first time of asking.
- Liverpool Win, Both Teams to Score: YES, Over 9.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points at 5/1 (available with Coral’s #YourCall)
I’ll be back to pick the bones out of the weekend’s shenanigans on Monday. Probably.
Who the hell is Matt Nesbitt?
Punter. Tipster. Collector. Of winnings.
Meet the good boy behind Badman Betting...
World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson
The planned football career that would allow Matt to spend every afternoon in the bookies was cut mercifully short. So he was able to spend his mornings there too.
But rather than spunk his (sweet) FA pension on a day-tripper to Palookaville, Matt played smart. He watched, he listened. Learned his trade and earned a reputation.
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