TV Guide - Game Week 18: WBA v Man United & Bournemouth v Liverpool

Sunday, December 17 2017

 

How do you get a 2/1 payout from an 8/13 bet? You bet like a Badman.

A tidy clean sweep from Man City's mauling of Tottenham. Now let's see what their progressively less noisy neighbours can muster... 

WBA v Man United. 2.15pm  on Sky

Okay, we all know Man United should win this. The bookies know this. Even Alan Pardew knows this.  The trick is unpicking how they will do it. So here goes…

United have put four past the other four Bottom Five teams this season. But three of those were at Old Trafford. On the road, they have looked less convincing – keeping just three clean sheets from eight matches. 

West Brom have performed better than the four point total suggests from their last five matches. But they are not going to open up on United and risk shattering whatever confidence has been built up by taking a hammering, especially with two much more winnable matches (Stoke and Everton) up next. Suspect they’d take another draw right now. 

So I’ll be playing like this…

Tap In

  • Man United to Win at 4/7

Badmen don’t mess with no 4/7 bets. Let this slide and get smart…

Smart Bets

  • Man United Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 11/10
  • Draw/ Man United in the HT/FT at 3/1

The odds-against options for an Away Win. And just for fun (and money that jingles, not folds) let’s have a punt on this…

Long Shot

  • Man United Win, Both Teams to Score: NO, Over 9.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points at 15/2 (available with Coral’s #YourCall)

Quick bar and toilet break, then…

Bournemouth v Liverpool. 4.30 on Sky

Four drop points in the last two at home for Liverpool (or six in the last three if you include Chelsea) suggests we should expect a response. 

Klopp’s Fab Four – or the ‘quad squad’, if you prefer – looked flat midweek. Perhaps still in a mood about the Merseyside derby mugging at the weekend – you know how seriously these Brazilians, Egyptians and Senegalese take local bragging rights… (Shit. Couldn’t. Give. A. Single.)

But it’s Liverpool’s shite six behind them that is the bigger issue.

Bournemouth scored six against Liverpool last season and will fancy outscoring them is their best route to points again this time. They were unlucky not to score against – and, perhaps beat – Man United in the week. But they do have problems with Top Half teams – just one point and three goals from nine matches so far this season.

So I’m thinking…

Tap In

  • Both Teams to Score at 4/6

Looks nailed on but too short to mess with on its own. 

Smart Bets

  • Liverpool Win & Both teams to Score at 15/8

This is value at a smidgeon under 2/1. And in the interests of adding a bit of spice to the spectacle, this is a good case to be made for 10+ Corners and less than 4 Cards. You certainly wouldn’t have to play the match five times for it to deliver. Let’s hope it’s at first time of asking.

Long Shot

  • Liverpool Win, Both Teams to Score: YES, Over 9.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points at 5/1 (available with Coral’s #YourCall)

I’ll be back to pick the bones out of the weekend’s shenanigans on Monday. Probably. 

Play nice. 

Matt Nesbitt

Ben Dinnery

Ben Dinnery

@BenDinnery

Ben is football’s leading injury specialist. The ‘go-to’ guru for big hitters like Sky Sports, ESPN and NBC Sports when they need data. Or the BBC, talkSPORT and the broadsheets when a quote is required. His unique insight has helped provide a better understanding of what is really happening in the treatment rooms.


Johnny Wilson

Johnny Wilson

@johnny_wilson5

Johnny is a respected physiotherapist and sports scientist, specialising in football injuries and rehab. Johnny has headed up the medical departments at Chesterfield, Scunthorpe and Notts County. Overseeing everything from player-specific training loads to pre-signing medicals. He has a proven record working with elite athletes in Private Practice and is regularly called upon throughout Europe to deliver presentations on the latest rehab innovations.


Matt Nesbitt

Matt Nesbitt On TipTV

@MattNesbitt16

Matt's short, unremarkable football career was ended by his own bad driving. His long, distinguished career as a football tipster was ended by his own good advice. Because bookmakers don’t like a winner. First, they closed his accounts. Then his members’ accounts. Then his tipping service. And now they employ him as a consultant. Funny old game.


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