Premier League Preview - Game Week 18

Thursday, December 14 2017

 

Hot on the high heels of a profitable midweek dabble, let’s see what the weekend has got in store shall we?

We Tapped-in eight from nine in the week – yes, Jurgen we’re all looking at you! But that’s how it should be really. They’re nailed-on. 

Smart Money bets are how to squeeze a bit of value out of the bookies – and we only need to land a couple to get in front. 

The Scorecasts are for tackling things like Sky’s Super 6 £250k or Colossus’ £5k - £5 million jackpots.   

(And don’t sign up with Colossus without claiming your £100 in free bets. Use this code: RAFMTS5UU4)

To business...

Saturday:
Leicester City v Crystal Palace

Both will be flying after their midweek wins. Leicester pulled out a season best and look to have a bit of the PL winning mojo back. Palace’s late mugging of Watford was their third 90th minute points-winner in six home matches. They are overdue breaking their duck on the road.  
Tap in: Leicester First Team to Score at 7/10. 
Smart Money: Leicester/ Leicester HT/FT is better value than Win To Nil. Both 9/4.
Scorecast:  The stats say 1-0 all day. I fancy 2-1.

Arsenal v Newcastle United
Only the Manchester pair outgun Arsenal at home. And Arsenal need this to stay in touch with stay in touch with the growing number of teams above them. Nothing much is going for Newcastle at the moment, but they have scored (four) in their last three away games. But one point from seven looks like it might be one from eight here.
Tap in: Ignore the 2/7 Home Win in favour of…
Smart Money: ...Arsenal Win & Both Teams to Score at 15/8.
Scorecast: A full metal jacket 3-1.

Brighton v Burnley
Just one point and one goal from five suggests the PL honeymoon is over in Brighton. They need six (plus) points over Christmas or could be packing their PL bags. Burnley are proving clinical v teams outside the Top Eight with eight wins from 11, seven of them To Nil. And still offering value.
Tap in: Burnley Draw No Bet at Evens. 
Smart Money:  Burnley Win To Nil at 17/5.  
Scorecast: Wouldn’t dissuade you from backing a sixth 0-1 of the campaign at 13/2.

Chelsea v Southampton
Banker of the weekend. Southampton pick their battles - losing six of their eight matches against Top Half teams. So this should be straightforward for Chelsea, although they have got a slip in them. Goals against Huddersfield and Newcastle in recent weeks have cost us Win & Under 3.5 Goals winners. Bastards. 
Tap in: Thought the Home Win would be shorter than 4/11. 
Long Shot: Draw/ Chelsea HT/ HT is the only thing resembling value at 29/10.
Scorecast:  A lazy 3-1.

Stoke City v West Ham
Stoke built their reputation on being horrible to play against. Nowadays they are just horrible to watch for their fans. West Ham will fancy their chances of getting something on the back of getting four points out of Chelsea and Arsenal. Still without an away win though. A draw wouldn’t be a disaster for either. 
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 5/6 looks better then picking a winner.
Smart Money: The Draw & Both Teams to Score is decent at 17/5.
Scorecast: It won’t be pretty. 1-1.

Watford v Huddersfield Town
Just one point from their last four matches has undone Watford’s good start a bit. But it could easily have been four, possibly six points so I’m backing a muscular return to winnings ways. Huddersfield haven’t scored on the road since opening day. 
Tap in: Watford Win at 8/11.
Smart Money: I prefer Watford & Over 2.5 Goals to Win To Nil at the mo. Both 15/8. 
Scorecast: Let’s say - 2-1.

Man City v Tottenham
Don’t believe the hype. Tottenham have won just four of their last 86 away trips to Top Four types. Granted, Spurs are better now. And City have only been a Top Four team for a bite size portion of those 86 matches. But Tottenham don’t look ready to slow down Pep’s juggernaut just yet.
Tap in: City at 4/7.
Smart Money: City & Both Teams to Score at 9/5.  
Scorecast: Five of the last six have been 2-1.

Sunday:
West Brom v Man United

Pardew still has Albion in the recovery position and will be aware their next two are more winnable than this. But everything seems much harder work and much less enjoyable than it should be for Jose at the moment. Likewise, this should be this the first of what should be a long winning streak for United.
Tap in: I prefer the Under 2.5 Goals at 4/5 to the Away Win at 4/7.
Long Shot: Draw/ Man United HT/ FT is worth a punt at 3/1.
Scorecast: A just enough 1-2.

Bournemouth v Liverpool
Bournemouth will consider themselves unlucky losing by a single goal at Man United. And at Tottenham. And at home to City and Chelsea. But two points from ten matches v Top Half teams isn’t bad luck.  Liverpool twice spilled two-goal leads here last year. One will do this time around.
Tap in: 1/2 is a bit short for the Away Win for my tastes.
Smart Money: Liverpool Win & Both Teams to Score is more like it at 19/10.
Scorecast: Has the look of goals – 2-4

Monday:
Everton v Swansea

Everton have re-mastered the clean sheet (four from five). And that is usually enough to see off Swansea. Eight of their 11 defeats have been by one goal.  Any positivity from winning the six-pointer v WBA was mercilessly slapped out of them by City in the week. This is a bigger game. But even the pre-Sam Everton were effective v Bottom Half – W5 D2 L1. 
Tap in: Home Win at 8/11.
Smart Money: Everton Win To Nil at 33/20.
Scorecast: Hmm, 1-0. Or 2-0.

I’ll be donning my Coupon Busting mask and cape later today. 
 

Matt Nesbitt

 

Who the hell is Matt Nesbitt?

Punter. Tipster. Collector. Of winnings.

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World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

The planned football career that would allow Matt to spend every afternoon in the bookies was cut mercifully short. So he was able to spend his mornings there too.

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