TV Guide - Scouse and Manc Derbies

Saturday, December 9 2017

 

Only landed one of four bets from last weekend’s Match Profiles, but it was a satisfying one. Getting a 6/4 return from a Man City home win is like getting four cans of ‘spesh for the price of a bottle of White Lightning.

Let’s have a glug on Super Strength Sunday…

Liverpool v Everton. 2.15 on Sky

There are those who insist on tearing up the formbook when it comes to derbies. Others throw it out the window. Some do both. Then sweep up the pieces and burn them. And bury the charred remains.
I don’t. And here’s why…

  • Everton haven’t won a Merseyside derby since 2011. 12 matches ago. 
  • Liverpool have won six and five have been drawn of the last 11.
  • Liverpool have won seven and drawn one of their matches v teams outside the Top Eight (Everton are currently 10th).
  • Liverpool have scored 38 goals in their last 12 matches. Three per match. 

The formbook told me all that. Never left the house. No black stuff on fingers. 

It will also tell you that Everton have won three on the spin, scoring nine and conceding zip. But I’ll add (in crayon over the top) that West Ham, Huddersfield and Ap Limassol are not a realistic barometer to judge this match. It’s a slamdunk, Badmen.   

The tricky bit is finding value (‘cos those pesky Bookies’ don’t tear up their formbooks). 

We can strike a line through almost all the Home Win options (see below) based on price. But I’ve included a decent punt on Wazza, that will add a bit of enjoyment to watching the match if nothing else.

Tap Ins

  • Home Win at 2/1
  • Liverpool Win to Nil at 6/4
  • Liverpool Win & Over 2.5 Goals at 8/13 
  • Wayne Rooney to have 1+ Shot on Target at 4/5 (Coral #YourCall) 

Big Sam will set Everton up not to get beaten and if they do it well, they could get to half-time level. At a slither less than 3/1 it is juuuust about worth a punt (as we’re struggling for anything else).

Expect Everton to be physical, but Liverpool don’t pick up bookings – and tear-ups are a thing of the past. So we can go low on Cards. Corners are tricky, but I’m banking low based on a tight first hour, a lack of qualify possession for Everton and Liverpool not chasing the game.  

Long Shots

  • Draw/ Liverpool in the HT/ FT at 29/10
  • Liverpool Win, Under 10.5 Corners & Under 55.5 Booking Points at 10/3 (Coral #YourCall)
  • Liverpool Win, Both Teams to Score: NO, Under 10.5 Corners & Under 55.5 Booking Points at 7/1 (Coral #YourCall)

And now the big one…

Man United v Man City. 4.30pm on Sky.

This is a much trickier nut to crack. Form only tells us so much – United are perfect at home, City perfect away. 

United’s mugging of Arsenal last weekend will have them pumped up, but conceding 75% possession and 16 shots on target won’t produce 3-1 wins very often. City’s first loss of the season in midweek shouldn’t ruffle them too much but they have started to concede a few goals (four in four), which could be an indication they are slowing up a tad.

But I think the context of the game is the key here. City’s eight point lead at the top means a draw would do very nicely thank you. United need to win. 

This doesn’t mean Jose will go gung-ho. Hell no. But he will release the handbrake on the bus in the last 20 minutes or so, if United haven’t been passed to death by then.

(And by the way, this is the only time in your or my lifetime that you will get 9/4 for a Man United Home Win. I’m a little bit tempted purely based on that fact). 

Play this one three times and you could get three different results.

I can't see a lot of goals, but there's no real value in going low. But I’m not going to get drawn into a prediction – other than I don’t expect it to be a classic. It would just be a guess.

Instead I’m going to speculate on value and add a bit of flavour to the spectacle with a couple of long range efforts…   

Tap Ins

  • Under 3.5 Goals at 4/11
  • First Half Result: Draw at 11/10

Long Shots

  • Draw/ Draw in the Half-time/ Full-time at 17/4
  • Draw/ Man United at 6/1

Hey. Phew. Rock n roll.

Matt Nesbitt

Who the hell is Matt Nesbitt?

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World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

The planned football career that would allow Matt to spend every afternoon in the bookies was cut mercifully short. So he was able to spend his mornings there too.

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Matt has been providing winning football advice since 1998. And whether it has been via post, premium rate phone line, email, TV or Twitter – he has always made punters money.

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