Things we learned at the weekend

Tuesday, December 5 2017

 

Value is value…

Over the years, many people have asked me what is the secret to successful betting. Normally, because I’m bloody hilarious, I will answer, ‘picking winners’. Then I’ll get serious and say, ‘but seriously…’ and say this…

Betting at odds bigger than the actual chance of something is the only way you will make money. As an answer it’s not as satisfying as something definitive like: ‘Trap one, first race at the dogs. Guaranteed…’ or ‘double your stake after every loser…’ or ‘French horses can’t win the National…’ – all of which I’ve heard.  Usually with absolute conviction. And always by idiots. Because it’s all bollocks. 

Trap one greyhounds don’t always win race one. Chasing losses by doubling stakes is likely to render homeless. And Mon Mome, 2009.    

So, unless you can back a winner every time (and you can’t. Trust me, I’ve spent 20 years proving it). Your best – actually, only – route is to back value. That is, a price bigger than the chances of something actually happening.

Take Man City v West Ham. On Sunday night the waistbands of spangling under-panted pole dancers all over Gibraltar will have been stretched to busting with the proceeds of losing Man City Win to Nil and Man City Match Handicap and HT/ FT bets. All at criminally short prices.  

Go steady, when you go short Badmen. Hope you were on the recommended City & Both Teams to Score at 6/4.  That’s how we do things round these parts.

Big Sam isn’t the Messiah…

Two wins and two clean sheets is just what Everton needed. In truth, a new manager with a big personality was probably pretty high on the list. But I’d suggest that home matches against West Ham and Huddersfield were pretty handily timed too.

West Ham will feel better after taking City the distance, but are in a bit of a state – and I’m hearing solid whispers about Sakho and Lanzini-sized holes that will need filling in January. And Huddersfield have now managed 630 minutes without a goal on their travels. 

So I’m expecting a few more miles of bad road before Big Sam restores them to the dour mid-table status that will have fans calling for his head this time next year.

A new brush doesn’t always sweep clean…

In Thursday’s Weekend Preview I put: 
Two teams with better days ahead, but this is still a six-pointer. Palace are edging steadily towards an away goal but the Baggies will be on best behaviour for Pardew’s first match. A month ago it was a banker 0-0, now I’m not sure. 

And predicted a home win, with both teams scoring. So what happens? 0-0, of course.

Frankly, West Brom don’t deserve a boost to their season. Is anybody excited by the appointment of Alan Pardew, apart from Alan? 

All the talk of wanting more expansive football… having their best squad for 25 years (what even better than the Paul Scharner and Graham Dorrans days…?! Phew, that’s big talk, Baggies!)… taking the club forward, blah blah blah boing boing. Then they appoint a manager whose career has been defined by doing a shit dance when his team looked like they might win a match. But didn’t. 

And he had the brass balls to call Manuel Pellegrini a cunt. Some people…

Fergie time is well and truly up…

Man United’s counter punching victory at Arsenal while spending most of the match on the ropes was their most Mourinho performance yet. And that’s good news – hear me out… It might not always be great to watch, but it’s great to bet on. 

Last minute goals are our enemy. For every one you collect on, there are a dozen torn up betting slips. 

Coming up this week:

Thursday: Weekend matches previewed
Friday: Your weekend Coupon Busters
Saturday: Your TV guide to cashing in on Super Dooper Sunday. 

Matt Nesbitt

Ben Dinnery

Ben Dinnery

@BenDinnery

Ben is football’s leading injury specialist. The ‘go-to’ guru for big hitters like Sky Sports, ESPN and NBC Sports when they need data. Or the BBC, talkSPORT and the broadsheets when a quote is required. His unique insight has helped provide a better understanding of what is really happening in the treatment rooms.


Johnny Wilson

Johnny Wilson

@johnny_wilson5

Johnny is a respected physiotherapist and sports scientist, specialising in football injuries and rehab. Johnny has headed up the medical departments at Chesterfield, Scunthorpe and Notts County. Overseeing everything from player-specific training loads to pre-signing medicals. He has a proven record working with elite athletes in Private Practice and is regularly called upon throughout Europe to deliver presentations on the latest rehab innovations.


Matt Nesbitt

Matt Nesbitt On TipTV

@MattNesbitt16

Matt's short, unremarkable football career was ended by his own bad driving. His long, distinguished career as a football tipster was ended by his own good advice. Because bookmakers don’t like a winner. First, they closed his accounts. Then his members’ accounts. Then his tipping service. And now they employ him as a consultant. Funny old game.


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